USO Is Up 64% This Year and Still Losing the Long Game

• U.S. Oil Fund (USO) is up 64% year-to-date but returned lone 39% implicit the past decade. ProShares (UCO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Chevron (CVX) supply alternate lipid exposure.

• Persian Gulf proviso disruptions drove lipid prices from $57.21 to $71.13, but contango resistance from monthly futures rolls explains wherefore U.S. Oil Fund underperforms oil’s semipermanent terms movements.

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Amidst satellite turmoil, the United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) is inactive up 64.% year-to-date arsenic of March 9, 2026, and Reddit is buzzing. However, the money has returned lone 15% implicit the past 3 years contempt lipid going done aggregate melodramatic cycles, and this spread comes down to 1 mechanical cost: contango drag. For its part, WTI crude has climbed from $57.21 connected January 2 to $71.13 arsenic of March 2, driven by geopolitical proviso disruptions successful the Persian Gulf, and USO has moved sharply with it.

USO does clasp front-month WTI futures contracts and rolls them guardant each month, selling the expiring declaration and buying the next. When the futures curve is successful contango, later-dated contracts outgo much than near-term ones, truthful that the monthly rotation is simply a guaranteed loss. You merchantability low, bargain high, repeat. Over time, those tiny losses compound into a meaningful spread betwixt what lipid prices bash and what USO shareholders really earn.

Weekly Reddit sentiment for USO stands astatine 85 retired of 100, driven astir wholly by supply-disruption narratives. The apical posts archer the story:

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• r/wallstreetbets station "$6 per gallon of state is coming" pulled 2,861 upvotes and 551 comments, with traders piling into lipid bets connected macro proviso fears.

• A station titled "Iraq lipid output drops 60% arsenic Iran warfare blocks tankers done Strait of Hormuz" drew 2,533 upvotes and 436 comments, cementing the geopolitical narrative.

• A thread successful r/stocks asking "Best mode to play lipid ripping if you can't bargain commodity contracts: USO oregon ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSEARCA:UCO)?" generated 47 comments

$6 per gallon of state is coming (actual investigation + graphs included, puts connected my degree)
by u/wallstreetbets successful wallstreetbets

Iraq lipid output drops 60% arsenic Iran warfare blocks tankers done Strait of Hormuz
by u/wallstreetbets successful wallstreetbets

Best mode to play lipid ripping if you can't bargain commodity contracts: USO oregon UCO?
by u/stocks successful stocks

The "USO oregon UCO?" thread is telling. Experienced retail traders cognize USO underperforms successful sustained contango. That station scored a sentiment people of lone 70, noticeably little than the broader lipid excitement, signaling skepticism astir the money specifically.