ITOT’s 37% Concentration in Top Ten Holdings Could Make or Break 2026 Returns

The iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (NYSE:ITOT) returned 16.4% done mid-December, tracking the wide U.S. equity market's beardown 2025. With tech stocks dominating returns and the money trading adjacent its November peak, investors are asking whether different double-digit twelvemonth is realistic oregon if the casual gains are down us.

The reply hinges connected a fistful of macro forces and fund-specific dynamics that volition either widen the rally oregon unit a reset.

ITOT's 2026 show volition way U.S. firm nett maturation much than immoderate different azygous factor. Analysts task S&P 500 net to turn astir 11% adjacent year, driven by continued enlargement successful exertion and fiscal sectors. If that forecast holds, ITOT's terms appreciation would apt onshore successful the precocious azygous digits to debased treble digits, positive different 1% from dividends.

The hazard is that estimates beryllium optimistic. Fourth 4th 2025 net are expected to turn conscionable implicit 8%, a deceleration from earlier quarters. If that slowdown continues into 2026, the 11% maturation people becomes harder to hit. Investors should show quarterly net reports starting successful January, peculiarly from mega-cap tech companies that predominate ITOT's portfolio. FactSet publishes play net updates tracking existent results against estimates, the astir reliable real-time gauge of whether nett maturation is connected track.

ITOT holds implicit 3,600 stocks, but its apical 10 positions relationship for 37% of assets. Nvidia unsocial represents 7.3% of the fund. That attraction amplified returns successful 2025 arsenic mega-cap tech stocks surged, but it works some ways. If the marketplace rotates toward smaller companies oregon worth stocks successful 2026, ITOT's dense tech weighting could lag.

The fund's 33% allocation to accusation exertion is astir triple its fiscal assemblage weight. Nvidia reported 62% gross maturation successful its astir caller quarter, with CEO Jensen Huang noting that request for AI chips remains intense. But sustaining that gait from a $57 cardinal quarterly gross basal is mathematically harder than from $35 cardinal a twelvemonth earlier. Watch Nvidia's quarterly reports and immoderate signs that hyperscale unreality providers are slowing superior spending connected AI infrastructure.