Will the Stock Market Skyrocket in 2026 Under President Donald Trump? A Historically Flawless Correlation Will Be Put to the Test.

1 week ago 7

Sean Williams, The Motley Fool

Sun, January 4, 2026 astatine 7:56 AM CST 7 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite offered an encore show to President Trump's archetypal term, with each 3 indexes rallying by treble digits successful 2025.
Midterm predetermination years for second-term presidents person delivered amazingly beardown returns.
However, humanities precedent is simply a pendulum that swings successful some directions.
10 stocks we similar amended than S&P 500 Index ›

During Donald Trump's archetypal word successful the White House, the banal marketplace soared. The ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and maturation stock-powered Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) rallied 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively.

The archetypal twelvemonth of Trump's non-consecutive 2nd word successful the White House fundamentally picked up wherever his archetypal word ended. In 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, respectively, gained 13%, 16%, and 20%.

While respective headwinds beryllium that endanger to nonstop stocks into a full-fledged correction, carnivore market, oregon elevator-down clang successful 2026, 1 historically flawless correlation points to a 4th consecutive twelvemonth of double-digit percent gains for the benchmark index. If this 75-year signifier were to persist, the banal marketplace could skyrocket successful the caller twelvemonth nether President Trump.

A smiling Donald Trump delivering remarks from down the statesmanlike podium.

Before going immoderate further, a cautionary enactment is warranted. Namely, what's happened successful the past can't concretely warrant what's to come. If a information constituent oregon correlated lawsuit could warrant the future, each capitalist would beryllium utilizing it by now.

With this being said, immoderate correlations person an uncanny way grounds of foreshadowing directional moves connected Wall Street. It's these information points and events that tin assistance investors optimally presumption their portfolios for aboriginal success.

Last week, Carson Group's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, who, similar me, is simply a large instrumentality of humanities correlations, made a station connected X (formerly Twitter) that examined the S&P 500 returns of two-term presidents by their tenure successful the White House.

Since 1950, determination person been six presidents who served 2 terms, with Donald Trump being the lone 1 whose word wasn't consecutive. Using information from FactSet, Detrick recovered that the S&P 500 produced mean returns of 3.4%, 6.9%, 22.2%, 10.5%, and 15.5% during the respective first, second, third, fourth, and 5th twelvemonth of a two-term president's clip successful office.

But here's wherever things get interesting...