Will 'One Battle After Another' ride the anti-ICE protest wave to Best Picture at the Oscars?

The movie that's been praised by critics for its timeliness whitethorn beryllium benefiting from the quality rhythm astatine the close time.

"One Battle After Another," Paul Thomas Anderson's politically-charged thriller, has maintained its frontrunner presumption for Best Picture astatine this year's Oscars since the fall. If you work my review, past you'd cognize I recommended it for those who are capable to compartmentalize their idiosyncratic authorities due to the fact that it's very left-wing. 

It's astir a radical of self-described revolutionaries connected the tally from a cabal of achromatic nationalist authoritarians. The opening country virtually depicts them freeing amerciable migrants from a detention halfway — not to notation that they besides weaponry courthouses and offices of anti-abortion lawmakers. One man's revolutionary is different man's home terrorist.

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Leonardo DiCaprio arsenic Bob Ferguson successful "One Battle After Another."  A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. (Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures)

Putting that aside, "OBAA" is simply a well-made film. Despite its astir 3-hour moving time, it ne'er lags. The performances from the formed led by Leonardo DiCaprio, the score, the editing were top-notch. Would I springiness it Best Picture? No. 2025 was a weaker twelvemonth for films wide — I'd ballot for "Hamnet" if I was a subordinate of the Academy — nonetheless, a Best Picture triumph was ever feasible.

Now, with each the turmoil that's unfolded successful Minnesota, a Best Picture triumph whitethorn already beryllium locked up.

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"OBAA" won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy oregon Musical (it's neither a drama nor a musical. Don't adjacent get maine started connected however films and TV shows are classified astatine the Golden Globes). It has since received 13 Oscar nominations, much than immoderate different movie too Ryan Coogler's vampire thriller "Sinners," shattering records with its 16 nominations.

 (L-R) Benicio del Toro, Teyana Taylor, Sara Murphy, Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Paul Thomas Anderson and Sean Penn judge the Best Motion Picture – Musical oregon Comedy Award for "One Battle After Another" onstage during the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards astatine The Beverly Hilton connected January 11, 2026 successful Beverly Hills, California.

But the existent governmental clime volition apt propel "OBAA" successful the Best Picture race. Liberal Hollywood isn't shy astir making a statement. Just look astatine each the "Be Good" pins worn astatine the Golden Globes honoring Renee Good and the marathon ICE bashing astatine the Grammys past week. They'll usage "OBAA" arsenic a elephantine "F you" to Donald Trump and his medication contempt the irony that "OBAA" would've been released careless of whether Trump oregon Kamala Harris won the 2024 election.

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On apical of that, galore successful the Academy astir apt consciousness that Paul Thomas Anderson is yet owed an Oscar. Anderson is present a 14-time nominee and was antecedently snubbed for films similar "Boogie Nights," "Magnolia" and "There Will Be Blood." In different words, he'll get the aforesaid attraction arsenic Christopher Nolan did 2 years agone with his Best Picture victor "Oppenheimer" aft going decades without a win.

Between nationalist authorities and Academy politics, the upwind is surely hitting the backmost of "OBAA."

The unrest successful Minneapolis has been apical of caput successful Hollywood betwixt the "Be Good" pins worn astatine the Golden Globes and the anti-ICE rhetoric astatine the Grammys.  (Getty Images)

Are determination chances for determination to beryllium an upset? Of course, "Sinners" — surpassing erstwhile grounds holders "Titanic," "La La Land" and "All About Eve" successful full nominations — is intelligibly adored by the Academy and volition apt nab a fewer trophies successful the trade categories. But arsenic we've seen earlier similar past twelvemonth with "Emilia Pérez," having the astir nominations doesn't ever construe to a Best Picture win. And the Academy whitethorn judge that since 39-year-old Coogler volition apt person a agelong vocation up of him arsenic a writer and director, voters volition hold earlier giving him an Oscar and manus it to 55-year-old Anderson instead.

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"Hamnet" whitethorn beryllium the darkest of acheronian horses successful this race. It did propulsion an upset implicit "Sinners" successful winning Best Drama astatine the Golden Globes, though notably has an wholly antithetic assemblage of voters (mostly overseas press). However, the Academy has progressively welcomed much and much overseas filmmakers and actors successful caller years, which is wherefore we've seen much and much overseas films being nominated for Best Picture. They whitethorn rally down the Shakespeare household play implicit the precise America-centric "OBAA" and "Sinners." However, possibly moving against "Hamnet" is the information that its writer/director Chloé Zhao conscionable won 2 Oscars for her enactment connected the 2021 Best Picture victor "Nomadland."

Paul Thomas Anderson, the manager of "One Battle After Another," is simply a 14-time Oscar nominee spanning decades, but with zero wins, possibly encouraging Academy voters to yet springiness him a trophy. (John Shearer/WireImage)

The lone existent indicators that volition affirm the frontrunner presumption of "OBAA" betwixt present and the Oscars are however the assorted guild awards play retired successful the coming weeks, chiefly the Producers Guild Awards, the Directors Guild Awards, the Writers Guild Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (now called the Actor Awards) since galore guild voters are besides Academy voters. If "OBAA" sweeps those, it volition beryllium incredibly apt a Best Picture triumph volition follow. If different films similar "Sinners" and "Hamnet" look arsenic large winners, that could spice up the race.

With each of that successful mind, "OBAA" inactive has the edge. And since the firestorm implicit ICE isn't apt to melt distant anytime soon, "OBAA" volition astir surely beryllium our adjacent Best Picture winner.

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