Why One Analyst Thinks ASML Is Worth $1,971

10 hours ago 3

Jordan Chussler

Thu, March 26, 2026 astatine 8:55 AM CDT 4 min read

ASML (ASML) raised its terms people to $1,971 by Bernstein, who projects EUV shipments to DRAM customers volition much than treble from 18 units successful 2025 to 44 units successful 2028. ASML’s EUV systems gross grew 39% year-over-year to $13.47B successful 2025, with Q4 grounds bid intake of $15.28B including $8.60B successful EUV orders, translating to a $45.06B contracted backlog.
DRAM capableness enlargement driven by widening supply-demand gaps is forcing representation makers to accelerate superior spending, positioning ASML arsenic the irreplaceable supplier for AI infrastructure buildout.
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ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) has had a singular run, gaining 91% implicit the past twelvemonth and 16% year-to-date. The Street's statement terms people sits astatine a comparatively humble $1,469.35.

Bernstein is making a acold bolder call. The steadfast raised its terms people connected ASML to $1,971 from $1,911, maintaining an Outperform standing and naming ASML its apical prime successful the EU Semis sector. That people sits good supra the Street statement of $1,469.35. The question is whether ASML tin realistically scope $1,971 by extremity of 2026.

The halfway of Bernstein's thesis is DRAM capableness expansion. The steadfast points to a widening spread betwixt DRAM proviso and request forcing representation makers to accelerate superior spending aggressively. Bernstein forecasts ASML volition vessel 44 EUV machines to DRAM customers successful 2028, representing 45% of full EUV shipments that twelvemonth — much than treble the 18 units shipped to DRAM successful 2025, which represented 34% of EUV shipments astatine the time, pointing straight to accelerating gross attraction successful the highest-margin merchandise line.

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EUV adoption successful DRAM: ASML's EUV systems gross grew 39% year-over-year to $13.47 cardinal successful 2025, driven by reduced outgo per vulnerability enabling broader DRAM adoption. CEO Christophe Fouquet noted that "memory customers are moving precise aggressively" connected capacity, straight expanding ASML's addressable revenue.
AI-driven request sustainability: Advanced representation and logic segments are increasing astatine much than 20% year-on-year, good supra the humanities 6-7% pace. ASML's grounds Q4 2025 bid intake of $15.28 billion, including $8.60 cardinal successful EUV orders signals request translating into contracted backlog of $45.06 billion.
Long-term gross expansion: ASML's 2030 gross people of €44 cardinal to €60 billion, paired with a caller €12 cardinal stock buyback programme done 2028 and a 17% dividend summation to €7.50 per share, creates a compounding instrumentality operation suited for semipermanent status accounts.