Why Gulf states aren’t joining the war against Iran — despite attacks on their soil

Even arsenic Iran expands attacks crossed the Persian Gulf, respective of the countries straight targeted are inactive refusing to articulation the combat against Iran, opting alternatively for restraint and diplomacy. Gulf governments accidental their precedence is defending their territory portion preventing a wider struggle that could destabilize the portion and planetary vigor markets.

When asked by Fox News White House elder analogous Peter Doocy astir Iran’s strikes connected Gulf states Monday, Donald Trump said experts had not anticipated Tehran would people neighboring countries.

"Nobody. Nobody. The top experts — cipher thought they were going to hit," Trump said erstwhile Doocy asked astir Iranian attacks targeting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.

TRUMP SEEKS WARSHIPS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES TO HELP SECURE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

A plume of fume rises from the Zayed Port pursuing a reported Iranian onslaught successful Abu Dhabi connected March 1, 2026. Iran's retaliatory rocket and drone run successful the Gulf has killed 3 radical and wounded 58 successful the United Arab Emirates since it began, Emirati authorities said connected March 1, the time aft the US and Israel launched a nationwaide onslaught connected Iran sidesplitting its ultimate leader.  (Ryan Lim / AFP via Getty Images)

Tehran widened the struggle aft U.S.-Israeli strikes connected Iranian lipid facilities earlier this month, expanding retaliation to Gulf vigor infrastructure and shipping routes successful the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded astatine slightest 25 Iranian attacks against shipping successful the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28, arsenic good arsenic strikes targeting vigor infrastructure crossed respective Gulf states.

"Tehran targeted Gulf vigor infrastructure and shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz seeking to rise the costs of the warfare for the U.S. and its determination partners," said Luca Nevola, ACLED’s elder expert for Yemen and the Gulf.

Jacob Olidort, main probe serviceman astatine the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that, "Since Operation Epic Fury began, our Gulf partners person responded with an unprecedented unified beforehand against threats posed by the Iranian regime," helium said, adding that their actions person focused connected stopping attacks alternatively than expanding the war. "This reflects not conscionable a tendency to stabilize the portion but besides a designation that the U.S. military’s occurrence is what makes that possible."

Foreign workers look astatine a gangly plume of achromatic fume ascends pursuing an detonation successful the Fujairah concern portion connected March 3, 2026. Iran's strikes connected Gulf neighbours since February 28, pursuing the U.S.-Israeli attack, forced the UAE to unopen its airspace, blindsiding travellers who thought they were headed to 1 of the region's safest vacation destinations.  (Fadel Senna / AFP via Getty Images)

Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi geopolitical researcher, told Fox News Digital that Riyadh is focusing connected maintaining planetary marketplace stability. "Riyadh is exercising maximum restraint astatine the moment, but the existent question is however agelong that restraint tin last," Al-Ansari said.

Al-Ansari pointed to a long-standing Saudi strategical philosophy. "Over a 100 years ago, the laminitis of Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, said: ‘The surviving bash not combat the dead.’ Perhaps Riyadh is pursuing this doctrine, astatine slightest until further developments unfold," helium said.

Qatar has taken a akin approach. "The State of Qatar’s policies ever question to de-escalate conflicts," a Qatari authoritative told Fox News Digital "Qatar is not a enactment to this war, and we powerfully judge that the unit indispensable extremity done negotiations. At the aforesaid time. Qatar continues to support its state and sovereignty pursuing the Iranian attacks."

IRAN WAR, 11 DAYS IN: US CONTROLS SKIES, OIL SURGES AND THE REGION BRACES FOR WHAT’S NEXT

Firefighters enactment successful Muharraq, Bahrain, aft reported Iranian strikes triggered a occurrence astatine substance tanks adjacent the airport, connected Thursday, March 12, 2026. (Bahrain Information Ministry/Reuters)

Another origin shaping Gulf restraint is simply a determination argumentation of refusing to let their territory to beryllium utilized for attacks connected Iran. Some U.S. subject experts accidental the Gulf’s hesitation is besides tied to long-standing concerns astir Washington’s reliability successful the region.

Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a erstwhile lawman commandant of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital that inconsistent U.S. policies person eroded spot among Gulf partners. "Our policies successful the Middle East person been much cyclical than a revolving door," Harward said. "We person failed to gain the spot and assurance of our Gulf partners implicit the past decennary and a half. And that deficiency of spot and assurance has lone exacerbated the menace from Iran to the region."

The present retired Vice Adm. said Gulf governments are weighing the risks of escalation carefully. "As these countries see whether to spell connected the offensive, they are disquieted astir what happens erstwhile we leave," helium said. "Admittedly, these countries are challenged to support themselves against a state of 90 cardinal without us."

Regional analysts accidental Gulf leaders are acrophobic that if adjacent 1 state joins the fighting, the struggle could rapidly engulf the region.

Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that if 1 subordinate of the Gulf Cooperation Council enters the war, it could resistance the full bloc with it. "If immoderate subordinate of the GCC decided to articulation this offensive, it would obligate the remainder of the GCC countries to articulation astatine the aforesaid time," Aljunaid said.

The consequences could widen acold beyond the battlefield. "You could ideate what the lipid prices would be. We are decidedly talking astir northbound of $150 per barrel," helium claimed.

HEGSETH BLASTS BRITS, SAYS IRAN'S CHAOTIC RETALIATION HAS DRIVEN ITS OWN ALLIES 'INTO THE AMERICAN ORBIT'

Iranian flags alert arsenic occurrence and fume from an Israeli onslaught connected Sharan Oil depot rise, pursuing Israeli strikes connected Iran, successful Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025.  (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)

Aljunaid said Gulf leaders are besides wary of open-ended subject campaigns successful the region. "Past experiences amusement that each clip subject enactment is initiated successful the region, it ne'er ends according to what was promised," helium said.

Instead, helium said Gulf countries are focusing connected antiaircraft measures portion softly supporting diplomatic channels, including mediation efforts done Oman.

Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III said Iran made a large strategical mistake by striking Gulf countries. "Iran made a strategical blunder by striking Gulf nations – our allies and friends – with ballistic missiles and drone attacks," Newton told Fox News Digital.

The retired Air Force commandant warned that attacks connected cardinal infrastructure specified arsenic lipid fields oregon desalination plants could propulsion Gulf states toward a much assertive response.

"I'm inclined to judge determination whitethorn perchance beryllium 1 oregon 2 nations successful the portion inclined to articulation with the U.S. by going violative against Iran," Newton said. "That is surely wrong the realm of anticipation successful the coming weeks."

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An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboat sails successful the Persian Gulf during an IRGC marine parade marking Persian Gulf National Day adjacent the Bushehr atomic powerfulness works successful Bushehr, Iran, connected April 29, 2024. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Newton added that the semipermanent nonsubjective for the U.S. and its partners should beryllium preventing Iran from threatening determination stableness and planetary shipping routes. "That includes achieving maritime dominance successful the Persian Gulf and mounting the conditions for harmless transition for commercialized shipping done the Strait of Hormuz," helium said.

For now, however, Gulf leaders look determined to incorporate the struggle alternatively than escalate it, adjacent arsenic Iranian strikes person already reached their territory.

The UAE did not instantly respond to requests for comment.