Why Boeing Has the Most to Lose If Tesla and SpaceX Ever Combine

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management and Elon Musk biographer Walter Isaacson person floated the thought that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX could harvester wrong the adjacent decade. This remains speculation alternatively than a deal. For Boeing (NYSE: BA), the hypothetical lands harder than for immoderate different company.

Boeing: A Fragile Recovery Meets a Hypothetical Megacompetitor

Boeing is mid-turnaround. Q1 2026 gross deed $22.217 billion, up 14% twelvemonth implicit year, with a halfway nonaccomplishment per stock of $0.20 and escaped currency travel of antagonistic $1.454 billion. Commercial Airplanes ran a 6.1% antagonistic operating margin. The backlog is simply a grounds $695 billion, and indebtedness was chopped to $47.2 cardinal from $54.1 billion.

CEO Kelly Ortberg commented: "We're gathering connected our momentum with a beardown commencement to the twelvemonth and increasing record-breaking backlog crossed our business, portion supporting our customers with inspiring missions similar Artemis II."

The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and Boeing wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

The banal paints a little inspiring picture. Shares closed astir precocious astatine $215.01, down 9.2% successful a week and 1.0% twelvemonth to date. A Polymarket declaration puts the probability of a U.S. national involvement successful Boeing by year-end astatine 29.5%.

Where a Musk Megamerger Would Bite

A combined Tesla and SpaceX would fuse motorboat dominance with vertical-integration manufacturing and artificial quality (AI). Boeing's nonstop vulnerability spans Starliner versus Crew Dragon, SLS subcontracting versus Starship, outer manufacturing versus Starlink, NSSL defence motorboat contracts, and ULA, which Boeing owns 50% with Lockheed. Layer successful endowment formation risk, superior markets vantage if SpaceX goes nationalist done the merger, and Tesla Optimus crossing into defence robotics, and the menace compounds.

Insiders amusement constricted conviction. On February 19, 2026, Ortberg parted with 5,016.643 shares astatine $236.71, alongside 10 different executives successful a five-day window.

Boeing's Better-Executing Peers

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) trades astatine $526.63, up 8.9% twelvemonth to date. CEO Jim Taiclet described model deals to "increase accumulation rates of these captious systems by 3-4 times existent rates." Lockheed won a $1.5 cardinal Peru F-16 declaration and a $4.8 cardinal PAC-3 award.