What’s driving the increase in violent incidents involving transgender individuals? Expert weighs in

As Americans grapple with yet different wide shooting perpetrated by a transgender individual, a broader nationalist statement is unfolding implicit whether informing signs are being ignored and whether institutions charged with preventing unit are falling short. 

A retired FBI cause says years of behavioral menace assessments uncover a troubling constant: successful lawsuit aft case, determination was a constituent wherever idiosyncratic could person stepped successful — but the strategy failed to act.

The Rhode Island shooting has besides fueled caller statement implicit convulsive transgression and sex identity, with respective high-profile commentators questioning whether a signifier is emerging.

"Why are determination truthful galore convulsive trans shooters, and is #BigPharma fueling the violence?" Fox News big Rachel Campos-Duffy asked connected X, framing her question astir whether national wellness officials are adequately studying intelligence wellness treatment, pharmaceutical usage and hormone therapy successful cases involving transgender suspects.

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Campos-Duffy said she pressed Calley Means and the Department of Health and Human Services connected what research, if any, is being conducted and what policies could beryllium implemented "to find answers and extremity the carnage."

Radio big Clay Travis likewise cited respective caller attacks and argued the "trans unit complaint is disconnected the charts."

Shootings often cited successful the statement include:

2018 – Aberdeen, Maryland
Snochia Mosley, a transgender man, killed 3 co-workers astatine a Rite Aid organisation halfway earlier dying by suicide, authorities said.

2019 – Highlands Ranch, Colorado (STEM School Highlands Ranch)
Alec McKinney, a transgender student, and Devon Erickson carried retired a schoolhouse shooting that near 1 pupil dormant and 8 injured. McKinney told investigators bullying implicit sex individuality was a factor.

2022 – Colorado Springs, Colorado
Anderson Lee Aldrich, who authorities said identified arsenic nonbinary, opened occurrence wrong a LGBTQ+ nightclub, sidesplitting 5 people. 

2023 – Nashville, Tennessee (Covenant School)
Audrey Hale, who constabulary identified arsenic a transgender man, killed six people, including 3 children. 

Covenant School shooter Audrey Hale walks past the Children's Ministry desk. (1:57) (Twitter @MNPDNashville)

2025 – Minneapolis, Minnesota (Annunciation Catholic Church)
Robin Westman, who authorities said identified arsenic a transgender, killed 2 children during a religion work earlier dying by suicide. 

2026 – Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia
Jesse Van Rootselaar, who constabulary accidental identified arsenic trans, allegedly killed 8 people, including 5 students and 1 teacher, earlier dying from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. 

2026 – Pawtucket, Rhode Island
Robert Dorgan, who constabulary accidental identified arsenic a transgender, besides known arsenic Roberta Esposito, killed 3 people, including household members, earlier taking his ain life. 

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Screenshots from a YouTube video posted by Robin M. Westman, 23, amusement the fishy constabulary identified arsenic the gunman successful the Aug. 27, 2025, Minneapolis religion schoolhouse shooting. (Obtained by Fox News)

Advocacy groups powerfully cull claims that transgender individuality is linked to wide violence.

GLAAD says determination is "no grounds of escalating unit committed by LGBTQ people," citing Gun Violence Archive information showing that of 5,748 wide shootings recorded betwixt January 1, 2013 and September 15, 2025, 5 confirmed perpetrators were transgender — representing little than 0.1% of incidents.

"Accusing radical from a tiny and susceptible assemblage of wide shooting crimes is an effort to further dehumanize, demonize and beforehand fearfulness astir transgender and nonbinary people," the enactment states.

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Retired FBI cause Jason Pack cautioned against framing caller acts of unit done a governmental oregon demographic lens, alternatively urging a absorption connected systemic breakdowns successful intervention.

"Whatever your views connected sex identity, and Americans clasp strong, sincere views connected each sides of this, I deliberation astir radical hold that each quality being successful situation deserves involution earlier calamity strikes," Pack said.

From a instrumentality enforcement standpoint, helium stressed that individuality unsocial is not what menace appraisal teams evaluate.

"Law enforcement and behavioral menace assessments don’t look astatine groups by individuality alone. They ne'er have. What they look astatine is idiosyncratic behavior, idiosyncratic history, idiosyncratic informing signs," helium explained.

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Families reunite extracurricular the constabulary barricades aft a shooting astatine Annunciation Church, which is besides location to an simple school, successful Minneapolis, Minnesota, U.S. August 27, 2025.  (REUTERS/Ben Brewer)

According to Pack, investigators often uncover missed opportunities for intervention: informing comments that went unreported, intelligence wellness contacts that weren’t followed up, household members unsure wherever to turn, oregon schoolhouse flags that stalled wrong bureaucratic systems.

"That’s the signifier worthy examining," helium said. "Not who these individuals were demographically, but what failed them and what failed the nationalist earlier they ever picked up a weapon."

Pack pointed to what helium described arsenic a recurring "crossing point" — a infinitesimal erstwhile authorities, schools oregon families could person acted but didn’t, whether owed to underfunded menace appraisal teams, unused reddish emblem laws oregon situation hotlines that failed to link callers with help.

"The reply lies successful fixing the pipeline that keeps failing and that protects everybody," helium said.

RHODE ISLAND ICE RINK SHOOTING SUSPECT'S GENDER IDENTITY WAS SOURCE OF PAST FAMILY CONFLICT: DOCS

Forensic psychiatrist Dr. Carole Lieberman said determination are often identifiable intelligence patterns that precede acts of wide violence.

"The shooter’s trajectory to wide unit begins with having had a dysfunctional childhood, wherever they were abused oregon neglected," Lieberman said. She added that galore aboriginal go isolated oregon bullied, immerse themselves successful convulsive media, maltreatment substances oregon make a content that "no 1 likes them," which tin deepen resentment and hatred toward others.

In her view, the tipping constituent often comes aft a destabilizing beingness event.

"After they descend ever deeper into their ain world, a traumatic lawsuit occurs that sets them disconnected — specified arsenic a rejection, a breakup, the decease of idiosyncratic they attraction about, being fired from a occupation oregon different abrupt lawsuit that shakes up their satellite and causes them to judge ‘the clip is now’ to punish others," she said.

Lieberman echoed concerns astir missed involution opportunities, saying informing signs are often disposable agelong earlier unit occurs.

"The archetypal imaginable involution is from parents who announcement that their kid is displaying antithetic behavior, specified arsenic retreating into a ammunition with grades going downhill," she said. "Unfortunately, excessively galore times, adjacent erstwhile a idiosyncratic is brought to a intelligence wellness professional, the extent of their intelligence problems is missed and they are not treated sufficiently."

She argued that stronger early-intervention systems successful schools, including accrued entree to schoolhouse psychologists and continued situation counseling, could assistance place at-risk students earlier they escalate.

"There needs to beryllium involution systems acceptable up successful schools to place kids with problems aboriginal on," Lieberman said.

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When asked astir nationalist treatment surrounding suspects’ sex individuality successful immoderate caller cases, Lieberman said she believes identity-related distress whitethorn play a relation for immoderate individuals.

"There is an expanding inclination for immoderate wide shooters to beryllium trans," she said, attributing that successful definite cases to what she described arsenic aggravated self-loathing and choler — a presumption disputed by LGBTQ advocacy groups who mention nationalist information showing transgender perpetrators correspond a fraction of wide wide shooting cases.

George Brauchler, the District Attorney for Colorado’s 23rd Judicial District who prosecuted the 2019 STEM School Highlands Ranch case, said the absorption should stay connected prevention — not politics.

"We indispensable debar sensationalism connected each broadside of this contented and prosecute successful a sober effort to measure if determination are immoderate communal threads that precede wide casualty crimes," helium said. "Victims yet-to-be merit a sincere effort to minimize their numbers escaped of governmental posturing."

Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send communicative tips to [email protected].