What Putin wants in exchange for ceasefire – and will Trump accept?

In each bid negotiations, determination are thrusts, parries and counter-moves agelong earlier the opposing parties instrumentality to the table.

Even arsenic a level carrying US negotiator Steve Witkoff to Moscow was successful the air, it was reported that a database of demands had been issued by the Kremlin.

Ukraine indispensable not beryllium allowed to articulation Nato.

The planetary assemblage indispensable recognise Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.

There indispensable beryllium nary overseas peacekeeping troops wrong Ukraine erstwhile a woody is struck.

While the archetypal request has already been broadly accepted by the planetary assemblage – though not by Ukraine, the second 2 intelligibly propulsion beyond the West’s antiaircraft positions.

It is nary mishap that Vladimir Putin appeared connected the beforehand lines connected Wednesday for lone the 2nd clip since the warfare began – and, for the archetypal time, successful combat fatigues. The negotiations, helium is signalling, volition not lone beryllium held successful the Kremlin.

If so a missive has been passed to Washington laying retired the maximal demands above, the 2nd way of the negotiations volition play retired connected the battlefield: the longer Russia stalls connected a 30-day ceasefire, the much accidental it has of wholly recapturing the occidental portion of Kursk, frankincense depriving Ukraine of 1 of its trade-able cards, not to notation morale.

Mr Witkoff, Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, the president’s cardinal negotiators, privation a woody fast. They support saying so. It is transparently successful Russia’s involvement to dilatory the process down, adjacent for this 30-day confidence-building truce. Perhaps, then, the hurried negotiators – whipped by Donald Trump successful the White House – mightiness see concessions.

Ukraine joining Nato

Volodymyr Zelensky has offered to measurement down if that means Ukraine is granted entree to Nato. But Russia has repeatedly stated that Ukraine joining Nato is simply a reddish line, blaming the alliance’s enlargement successful eastbound Europe for its penetration astir 3 years ago.

In presumption of the Russian demands gradually taking shape, Nato rank is the milksop. As soon arsenic Pete Hegseth ruled retired Ukraine joining the confederation past month, immoderate anticipation that Kyiv could beryllium snapped into Nato upon the signing of a woody – frankincense availing itself of Article 5 protections – vanished.

Some analysts reason it should beryllium enactment backmost connected the table, including Stephen Hadley, George W Bush’s erstwhile nationalist information advisor, successful a caller nonfiction successful Foreign Affairs. But European Nato leaders are present much acrophobic with whether the Trump medication would fulfil its Article 5 obligations if they are attacked themselves. This could beryllium a straightforward concession to Russia.

Russia’s occupied territories

International designation of Russia’s occupied territories raises the stakes considerably. Ukraine volition object, and hard. Europe, likewise, has nary involvement successful rubber-stamping a Russian penetration (a mediocre illustration to acceptable for Transnistria or, worse, the Suwalki Gap).

But it is US negotiators astatine the table, and, with the change-over successful the White House, their intentions connected the substance are not truthful clear. Mr Trump’s predominant involvement successful Ukraine appears, astatine times, to beryllium its mineral wealth. The bulk of specified resources lies successful the Donbas region, portion occupied by Russian forces.

Putin past period said helium was acceptable to enactment with Mr Trump connected associated mining projects successful what helium called “Novorossiya” – the Russian word for the territories seized from Ukraine. America could hardly beryllium seen to collaborate connected mining projects with Putin successful illegally seized lands, but recognising Moscow’s assertion to the territory mightiness alteration the picture.

Peacekeeping force

One of the much funny elements of the pitch-rolling up of negotiations is Mr Trump’s assertion that Putin agreed to the deployment of European peacekeepers erstwhile they spoke connected the phone. Every motion coming retired of the Kremlin, successful public, suggests otherwise.

Sergei Lavrov, the overseas minister, regularly slams the idea. A leaked Feb 25 papers from a deliberation vessel adjacent to the FSB (Federal Security Service) likewise casts it aside. Instead, Russia should request a buffer portion connected the border, and a wholly demilitarised portion astir Crimea and successful confederate Ukraine adjacent Odesa.

According to a Bloomberg study past week, Putin could marque immoderate enactment for bid conditional connected him being capable to take the planetary make-up of a peacekeeping force. There mightiness beryllium country for dialog here.

The Quincy Institute, a Washington-based deliberation tank, precocious suggested staffing the buffer portion connected the borderline with soldiers from the Global South. Putin has made large efforts to triumph enactment from specified nations arsenic helium faces diplomatic isolation elsewhere: their beingness connected Russia’s borders could discourage excessively overmuch lethal mischief-making.

Ukraine, clearly, volition request the vastly greater information that would beryllium provided by a European force, including British and French troops. Early indications suggest that Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are moving connected a “reassurance force” that would beryllium based successful cities distant from the beforehand line, adjacent cardinal vigor and infrastructure sites.

Putin’s peacekeeper presumption could good beryllium that acquainted negotiating tactic: a maximalist demand, thrown retired successful bid to beryllium aboriginal “ceded” arsenic a “concession” to the different side. The existent extremity – and the hard enactment – volition beryllium cementing the presumption of “Novorossiya”, the effect of a warfare that has outgo Russia truthful galore tens of thousands of lives.