War Risk Is Real and QQQ Investors Simply Do Not Care

Oil is up treble digits successful a month, the VIX is sitting astatine 23.57, and Reddit is calling it "Black Swan Territory" — yet the retail assemblage holding NVIDIA, Meta, and Microsoft is not selling. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 0.71% implicit the past week and 1.08% implicit the past month, yet retail sentiment crossed its apical AI holdings remains bullish. A Strait of Hormuz blockade has pushed WTI crude up 10.3% successful a azygous period and the VIX to. R/investing is calling this "Black Swan Territory" with 2,028 upvotes and 402 comments, and astir Reddit communities are not fleeing the AI trade.

This infographic illustrates the factors driving the bullish sentiment and rally successful QQQ and apical AI stocks contempt geopolitical warfare risks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

We Are In Black Swan Territory
by u/unknown successful investing

As 1 r/investing idiosyncratic wrote successful the thread: "We are successful achromatic swan territory - the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Taiwan tensions, and AI valuations stretched to the limit. This is not a mean correction."

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) correspond astir 24.61% of QQQ. NVIDIA unsocial is the fund's azygous largest holding astatine 8.63%, what happens to these 5 names is what happens to QQQ.

READ: The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 just named his apical 10 AI stocks

NVIDIA posted $68.13 cardinal successful Q4 FY2026 revenue, up 73.2% year-over-year, with Data Center networking surging 263% YoY to $10.98 billion. Microsoft crossed $50 cardinal successful unreality gross for the archetypal clip successful a azygous quarter, with Azure increasing 39%. Meta reported a $100 cardinal AI woody with AMD that concisely sent play sentiment to 82 (very bullish). These are not rumor-driven moves. Still, r/stocks is wrestling with whether the numbers warrant the prices. A station asking "Is anyone other terrified China takes Taiwan next?" collected 4,506 upvotes and 1,346 comments. The interest is real. The selling has not followed.

With the US hitting Venezuela today, is anyone other terrified China takes Taiwan next? (and bricks the planetary spot supply)
by u/unknown successful stocks

As the archetypal station read: "With the US hitting Venezuela today, is anyone other terrified China takes Taiwan next? (and bricks the planetary spot supply) - if that happens, NVDA, MSFT, and each AI sanction goes to zero overnight."

Meta and Microsoft person the highest play sentiment scores astatine 62.57 and 60.24, respectively. Alphabet is the breakdown story. Its play people sits astatine 36.52, down from a quarterly mean of 58.86: