US Inflation Set to Stay Sticky as Tariff Risk Looms

Vince Golle and Craig Stirling

Sun, Mar 9, 2025, 10:00 AM 8 min read

(Bloomberg) -- US user prices astir apt roseate successful February astatine a gait that illustrates plodding advancement connected ostentation for Federal Reserve officials. They whitethorn beryllium contented to stay connected the sidelines to measure a argumentation whirlwind from the Trump administration.

Most Read from Bloomberg

• NJ College to Merge With State School After Financial Stress

• Trump Administration Plans to Eliminate Dozens of Housing Offices

• Republican Mayor Braces for Tariffs: ‘We Didn’t Budget for This’

• Where New York City's Zoning Reform Will Add Housing

• How Upzoning successful Cambridge Broke the YIMBY Mold

Bureau of Labor Statistics figures connected Wednesday are projected to amusement that the user terms scale minus nutrient and vigor climbed 0.3%, based connected the median estimation of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. While little than January’s 0.4% summation successful January, the magnitude of the summation leaves yearly terms maturation elevated.

The alleged halfway CPI astir apt roseate 3.2% from February past year. The information volition pass the Fed’s preferred terms gauge, which isn’t owed until aft the March 18-19 argumentation meeting. Interest-rate setters — present successful a blackout play up of that gathering — person an ostentation extremity of 2%.

The latest snapshot of terms pressures follows a February jobs study that showed dependable payrolls maturation tempered by hints of underlying cracks successful the labour market. The broader system is besides displaying signs of softening, reflecting weaker user spending, sentiment and homebuilding astatine the commencement of the year.

Wednesday besides is the time that 25% tariffs for alloy and aluminum imports are scheduled to instrumentality effect, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaling connected Sunday that helium doesn’t expect a reprieve from the levies.

On Thursday, information are projected to amusement akin lingering outgo pressures astatine the economy’s wholesale level. The shaper terms index, excluding nutrient and fuel, is projected to person risen by 3.5% successful February from a twelvemonth ago.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed needs to spot ‘real progress’ connected ostentation oregon immoderate labor-market weakness to see adjusting rates again. After early-year terms resets stalled disinflation successful January, policymakers volition beryllium looking for caller advancement successful February’s CPI. We expect lone humble betterment arsenic residual seasonality effects linger: We estimation some header and halfway CPI ostentation roseate 0.3%.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists. For afloat analysis, click here

On Friday, a University of Michigan study is projected to amusement a further diminution successful user sentiment. Traders, arsenic good arsenic Fed officials, volition wage peculiar attraction to the survey’s ostentation expectations metrics.