US dollar edges higher as Iran ceasefire deadline approaches

By Stefano Rebaudo

April 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher connected Tuesday aft falling the time earlier arsenic uncertainty implicit Middle East bid talks kept investors connected the sidelines.

The United States expressed assurance that bid talks with Iran would spell ‌ahead successful Pakistan, but important hurdles stay arsenic the extremity of a two-week ceasefire approaches.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced the ‌ceasefire with Iran connected April 7. While helium has not specified the nonstop clip it expires, April 21 would people 2 weeks, which could beryllium Tuesday evening successful the ​United States and Wednesday greeting successful Iran. Iran's equipped forces are acceptable to present an "immediate and decisive response" to immoderate renewed hostile enactment by its adversaries.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a handbasket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was up 0.15% astatine 98.24 aft a 0.2% diminution connected Monday.

The Iran warfare has mostly seen the greenback supported by safe-haven request portion rising Brent crude futures weighed connected the euro and ‌the yen, arsenic some regions are large lipid importers.

"This ⁠binary backdrop of geopolitical hazard is keeping a choky grip connected forex and arsenic agelong arsenic talks are happening past the U.S. dollar should beryllium connected the backfoot," said Paul Mackel, planetary caput of forex probe astatine ⁠HSBC, referring to conflicting signals implicit de-escalation.

"The other should besides clasp true."

Investors volition besides support a adjacent oculus connected the Senate confirmation proceeding of Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, arsenic cardinal issues specified arsenic monetary argumentation direction, the Fed's independency and its equilibrium expanse are acceptable to ​take centre ​stage.

"Given the audience, it seems tenable that Warsh whitethorn not dependable overly dovish ​versus what is priced successful our view, leaving speech ‌his semipermanent presumption that AI productivity gains could enactment little rates," HSBC's Mackel added.

EURO TRACKS MOVES IN NATURAL GAS PRICES

The euro stood astatine $1.1782, down astir 0.2% connected the day.

The azygous currency has precocious tracked moves successful vigor prices, peculiarly the terms of earthy gas, falling successful worth erstwhile state prices person changeable up and vice versa.

Futures for TRPC Natural Gas deed $68.20 connected March 19, their highest levels since January 19, but person since fallen to astir $39.

The euro has gained crushed since March 16 erstwhile it deed $1.1409, its lowest level since August 2025.

Traders are inactive pricing successful astir ‌two European Central Bank complaint hikes by the year's extremity but ECB President ​Christine Lagarde said the slope needs much accusation earlier drafting steadfast argumentation conclusions. Analysts ​expect the ECB to support rates unchanged this month.