United Arab Emirates is no fragile mirage, it's a fortress oasis

With Operation Epic Fury, an aged assertion has resurfaced: that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Gulf monarchies are weak, artificial states that volition neglect nether pressure. This statement has been proven incorrect each clip it has been tested. It is being disproved again now, arsenic Iranian ballistic missiles transverse Gulf airspace, UAE defenses intercept astir of them, and regular beingness continues below. At this point, the fragility thesis doesn’t request a rebuttal; it needs a thorough examination.

An alert issued by the UAE Ministry of Interior informing residents of Dubai and Abu Dhabi of a imaginable Iranian rocket onslaught is displayed connected a mobile telephone soon earlier a rocket was intercepted successful Dubai connected March 5, 2026.  (FADEL SENNA / AFP via Getty Images)

This thesis usually comes from 2 precise antithetic groups: the Muslim Brotherhood and immoderate Western academics. For the Muslim Brotherhood, the thought that Gulf monarchies are illegitimate and impermanent is not conscionable governmental messaging. It forms a halfway portion of their worldview. In the aboriginal 20th century, Muslim Brotherhood laminitis Hassan al-Banna rejected hereditary monarchy arsenic a valid Islamic model. The Brotherhood’s presumption of empowerment lone holds if existent rulers are seen arsenic morally lacking and destined to fail. In this view, Gulf stableness is not conscionable an inconvenience; it poses a nonstop ideological threat.

This is particularly existent for the UAE. The Emirati exemplary is not lone anti-Brotherhood politically; it is besides anti-Brotherhood successful taste terms. The UAE lives an Islam that is tolerant, orderly and comfy with diverseness and pluralism. This matters due to the fact that it softly undermines 1 of the Brotherhood’s cardinal claims: that governmental Islam is the lone mode to execute dignity, authenticity oregon justness successful a Muslim society. A prosperous, unchangeable Muslim-majority authorities that embraces spiritual coexistence doesn’t conscionable situation that idea; it shows it is outdated.

The skyline successful Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, connected Monday, Sept. 1, 2025. Abu Dhabi has for years been trying to found itself arsenic an charismatic alternate to neighboring Dubai. Photographer: Vidhyaa Chandramohan/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Vidhyaa Chandramohan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

That is wherefore symbols similar the Abrahamic Family House are important. A mosque, religion and synagogue connected 1 field successful Abu Dhabi, the Abrahamic Family House isn’t conscionable a branding effort. It represents a wide connection astir the benignant of state the UAE is. It reflects values that Americans understand: spiritual coexistence, nationalist bid and the thought that prosperity and tolerance tin enactment each different alternatively of competing. This shared worth strategy is 1 crushed the concern betwixt the U.S. and the UAE has grown steadily implicit the decades, from Desert Storm to the existent conflict. It is these shared values of prosperity and pluralism and information that marque me, arsenic a Jew, arrogant to telephone the UAE my 2nd home. It is simply a state wherever I person ne'er erstwhile felt physically unsafe to state my religion and provides a unsocial accidental to conscionable radical from divers cultures and a unafraid basal from which planetary concern tin beryllium conducted.

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The anti-UAE versions of the fragility communicative were pushed by salient figures, not conscionable fringe voices. In 2014, Qatar-based ideologue Yusuf al-Qaradawi condemned the UAE arsenic anti-Islamic connected Qatari television. In December 2024, his son, Abdulrahman, spoke successful Damascus and expressed anticipation that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt would fall. Al Jazeera Arabic, particularly nether erstwhile manager Wadah Khanfar, often provided a level for this perspective, coating the UAE and the wider Gulf Cooperation Council arsenic unstable and lacking motivation integrity.

The Western world mentation of this thesis had a antithetic code but often reached akin conclusions. In a book, :After the Sheikhs," writer Christopher Davidson, a Fellow astatine Durham University successful the UK, predicted successful 2012 that astir Gulf regimes could illness wrong 2 to 5 years. In 2011, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a chap for the Middle East astatine Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, cautioned that a "perfect storm" could destabilize Gulf societies.

A achromatic plume of fume rises from a warehouse astatine the concern country of Sharjah City successful the United Arab Emirates pursuing reports of Iranian strikes successful Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (Altaf Qadri/AP Photo)

Later, the International Crisis Group, a struggle mitigation nonprofit, described the Gulf arsenic divided and unstable.This was not a conspiracy but investigation based connected a flawed assumption: that rentier states, reliant connected lipid wealth, indispensable beryllium anemic astatine their core. The mistake was confusing governance issues with a deficiency of existent authorities power.

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This mistake has go glaringly evident during the existent conflict. When Iranian missiles began to onslaught crossed the Gulf connected March 1, the fragility communicative came up again. Analysts described Gulf economical models arsenic anemic and vulnerable. Tehran seemed to judge this too. Its determination to people Dubai, a metropolis with constricted nonstop U.S. subject presence, was a calculated move, hoping that disruption would origin panic. Iran misjudged the Gulf’s concern model, assuming it was besides its anemic point.

The UAE held its ground, arsenic did the Gulf successful general. Exchanges reopened, and airports resumed operations. Qatar, contempt years of mediating betwixt Tehran and Washington, D.C., changeable down 2 Iranian Su-24s nearing its airspace. This was a important lawsuit and showed that Gulf states aren’t passive nether pressure. Given the close conditions, they volition respond.

By March 10, the UAE had endured implicit 250 ballistic missiles, much than 1,400 drones and 8 cruise missiles. Its layered aerial defenses, developed done extended readying and investment, person performed astatine a level fewer countries could achieve. American THAAD and Patriot systems, South Korea’s Cheongung II successful its archetypal conflict deployment, Israeli developed Barak-8 batteries and US-operated assets person intercepted implicit 90% of incoming threats. Fatalities person been minimal. Cafés stay open, roads are engaged and radical aren’t fleeing. Many openly explicit loyalty to the country.

These aren’t signs of a mirage. They bespeak a authorities that was prepared.

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The mentation goes deeper than conscionable subject hardware. Yes, the UAE invested early, diversified wisely and built 1 of the astir precocious defence structures successful the region. At the aforesaid time, it besides established thing little measurable but arsenic important: a moving societal agreement. More than 200 nationalities unrecorded successful the UAE. Most stayed during Covid, and they are staying done rocket attacks, not retired of obligation, but due to the fact that they genuinely consciousness astatine location there. This quiescent consciousness of belonging, wrong a assured Muslim-majority authorities that embraces differences, is simply a cardinal instauration of Emirati resilience.

The UAE is not a fragile mirage. It is simply a fortress oasis: pluralistic, orderly, heavy defended and supported by 1 of the strongest information partnerships that the United States has successful the region. Critics person repeatedly predicted its collapse. Instead, nether pressure, it has demonstrated endurance, legitimacy and strength, on with the broader nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council.