TSMC Is Down, the Iran War Is Rattling Chip Stocks, and That's Exactly Why Long-Term Investors Should Pay Attention

Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) person declined by implicit 7% successful the past month, arsenic geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran struggle rise concerns astir planetary proviso chains. Hence, portion the company's request drivers stay intact, its hazard cognition has intelligibly shifted.

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Taiwan relies heavy connected liquified earthy state (LNG) imports, overmuch of which walk done the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption successful this corridor could summation vigor costs and constrain TSMC's spot production. According to geopolitical commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera, Taiwan imports 97% of its vigor requirements and holds conscionable 11 days of earthy state reserves (as of March 23, 2026). Rising helium prices tin besides beryllium to beryllium a imaginable bottleneck successful precocious spot manufacturing.

Despite expanding capitalist concerns, TSMC's fundamentals stay exceptionally strong. For its 2025's 4th quarter, gross grew 25.6% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $33.1 billion, portion gross margins and operating margins reached 62.3% and 54%, respectively.

Demand for the company's cutting-edge chips is besides accelerating. High-performance computing (HPC), which includes artificial quality (AI) workloads, accounted for 55% of the fourth-quarter revenues. With AI adoption expanding crossed enterprise, consumer, and sovereign usage cases, the request for TSMC's cutting-edge chips is coming not lone from nonstop customers, which are spot designers, but besides from unreality work providers.

TSMC is besides preparing for a multi-year request cycle. The institution is readying for $52 cardinal to $56 cardinal successful capex successful 2026, mostly focused connected expanding precocious spot manufacturing capacity. The institution expects adjacent to 30% gross maturation successful 2026, portion AI accelerator revenues are estimated to turn successful the mid- to precocious 50s percent annually from 2024 to 2029.

With TSMC accounting for astir 72% of the planetary foundry stock astatine the extremity of 2025, the existent stock terms pullback tin beryllium an charismatic introduction constituent for semipermanent investors.

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