Trump Wanted A 'Golden Age,' The Iran War Is Delivering A Stagflation Trap

President Donald Trump promised a Golden Age of debased ostentation and blistery economical growth, but the archetypal concern survey since the Iran warfare broke retired suggests he’s getting the opposite.

The warnings came from the archetypal concern surveys printed since the warfare started connected Feb. 28.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a survey-based gauge of concern enactment crossed some the manufacturing and services sectors — fell to 51.4 successful March.

While the broader header speechmaking inactive points toward an expansionary backstage assemblage activity, the details beneath the aboveground were much concerning.

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Input costs posted their sharpest monthly summation successful 10 months, signaling a renewed ostentation pulse driven by higher vigor prices. At the aforesaid time, U.S. backstage assemblage employment declined for the archetypal clip since February 2025.

This isn't conscionable a communicative of slowing growth. It's a representation of an system drifting toward stagflation — and a Federal Reserve with nary casual response.

The survey, compiled betwixt March 12 and 23, revealed a widening divided crossed the economy:

• The Services PMI fell to 51.1, an 11-month debased and beneath expectations, arsenic higher vigor costs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed connected demand. Export orders declined astatine a faster pace.

• Manufacturing, by contrast, roseate to 52.4, a two-month high. But the spot came from precautionary behavior: firms rushed to physique inventories and unafraid inputs, not due to the fact that request improved, but due to the fact that proviso risks increased. The evident resilience successful manufacturing is mostly driven by safety-stock accumulation.

• Purchasing enactment saw its biggest summation since June 2025 — not due to the fact that request is strong, but due to the fact that companies are hedging against aboriginal disruptions.

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Today's upside astonishment whitethorn go tomorrow's downside hazard erstwhile inventories are built and orders fade.

That benignant of front-loading tends to propulsion enactment guardant — boosting existent information portion raising the hazard of a request aerial pouch successful coming months.

Across some sectors, prices were the communal unit point.

Input costs roseate astatine the fastest gait successful 10 months, portion selling prices recorded their steepest summation since August 2022. Supplier transportation times lengthened to the astir since October 2022, pointing to renewed proviso concatenation stress.