Trump Tariffs: Here's What JPMorgan Investors Need to Know

2 months ago 25

Dan Victor, The Motley Fool

Tue, Apr 15, 2025, 6:23 AM 5 min read

Despite caller banal marketplace volatility, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) shares are down conscionable 1% twelvemonth to date, outperforming the 9% diminution successful the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) astatine the clip of writing. The banking elephantine continues to payment from its fortress-like equilibrium expanse and planetary diversification, making it well-positioned to navigate immoderate economical environment.

That was the connection from CEO Jamie Dimon presenting the bank's first-quarter net study (for the play ended March 31). JPMorgan topped Wall Street estimates, with gross climbing 8% twelvemonth implicit year, portion net per stock (EPS) of $5.07 was up 14% from the prior-year quarter.

Yet the results arrived with a code of caution. Jamie Dimon besides said the U.S. system faces "considerable turbulence" amid the looming interaction of commercialized tariffs being implemented by the Trump administration.

Let's sermon what tariffs and a commercialized warfare mightiness mean for JPMorgan and its banal terms outlook now.

JPMorgan started the fiscal 2025 twelvemonth disconnected strongly, with each 3 of its concern segments delivering gross growth.

The flagship Commercial & Investment Bank radical saw fantabulous momentum, driven by optimism astir the economical outlook astatine the opening of the twelvemonth and grounds marketplace levels that propelled trading enactment and deal-making. In the Consumer & Community Banking division, paper services and car lending person been maturation drivers, reflecting resilient user spending. Asset & Wealth Management has besides been a agleam spot arsenic continued nett inflows boosted interest income.

Some of the cardinal fiscal metrics that stood retired successful the archetypal 4th see a 2% year-over-year summation successful mean loans and deposits, portion JPMorgan's publication worth per stock roseate 12% compared to Q1 2024, reaching $119.24.

Although it whitethorn person been concern arsenic accustomed for the slope successful the archetypal quarter, the outlook has grown progressively uncertain. Officially, the slope is guiding for full-year nett involvement income of $94.5 billion, a 1% summation from past year. However, this fig isn't etched successful stone, since it depends connected the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment. For now, the escalating commercialized tensions contiguous an operational and fiscal headwind.

In caller weeks, the Trump medication announced a large U.S. commercialized argumentation overhaul, implementing a 10% baseline tariff connected astir imports, with importantly steeper tariffs connected circumstantial countries similar China. Although Trump has since rolled backmost immoderate steps, pausing higher reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for astir countries and allowing for immoderate exceptions, experts pass that the measures whitethorn inactive origin economical disruptions. JPMorgan's main U.S. economist Michael Feroli present estimates a 50% recession probability, indicating that the slope is taking the risks seriously.

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