Trump officials want to measure the economy's health in a way that may hide DOGE cuts

Sun, Mar 9, 2025, 7:00 AM 5 min read

A bid of comments from Trump officials successful caller days raised concerns that the medication whitethorn effort to look otherwise astatine a cardinal economical measurement of America's economical health: the quarterly speechmaking of the gross home merchandise (GDP).

It's an thought nether consideration, but its nonstop signifier is unclear. Elon Musk is the idea's astir vocal proponent, saying that a "more close measurement of GDP would exclude authorities spending."

At contented is that the authorities already publishes precisely specified a fig known arsenic the Value Added by Private Industries (VAPI). But the information that Musk is pushing it amid his DOGE enactment — different Trump authoritative has gone further by suggesting that it mightiness beryllium imaginable to prime and take authorities spending — has raised questions astir whether this is chiefly an effort to minimize immoderate of the antagonistic effects from Musk's efforts.

"It seems similar a unusual spot to commencement to say, hey, we're going to person the top system successful the past of the globe, but we're going to person to measurement it otherwise due to the fact that you can't spot it," Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, said successful a caller occurrence of Yahoo Finance's Capitol Gains podcast.

"That's not a large income job," helium added.

The propulsion is besides funny as, overall, successful spite of wide concerns astir runaway authorities spending, the government's portion of America's gross home merchandise has really declined somewhat arsenic backstage assemblage increases person outpaced authorities growth.

The quarterly GDP and VAPI are some gathered and released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an bureau of the Department of Commerce. The GDP speechmaking for the archetypal 4th of 2025 — the archetypal merchandise that volition see Trump's clip successful bureau — is owed adjacent month.

Concerns astir a slowing GDP person besides been connected the emergence aft the commencement of the Trump presidency saw a assortment of actions — from tariffs to DOGE to an migration crackdown — that could supply a resistance connected economical output.

JPMorgan Chase precocious revised its archetypal 4th GDP prediction from 1.5% to 1% successful portion due to the fact that of the commercialized tensions. Goldman Sachs is lowering its GDP projection arsenic well, reducing its forecast for maturation astatine the extremity of 2025 to 1.7% from 2.2% previously.

Musk's propulsion for the thought is based connected his oft-argued constituent that authorities spending tin propulsion GDP "artificially high" without helping the economy.

But it comes arsenic Musk-led downsizing of national agencies is opening to beryllium felt successful authorities information with national authorities employment falling by 10,000 successful February.