Trump demands do-or-die nuclear talks with Iran. Who has the leverage?

President Donald Trump remains adamant that his medication volition prosecute successful "direct" atomic talks with Iran connected Saturday successful Oman, portion Tehran appears to stay arsenic steadfast successful its insistence the negotiations volition beryllium "indirect."

Middle East envoy Stever Witkoff is scheduled to question to Oman, wherever helium could perchance beryllium gathering with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, though the Iranian authoritative has truthful acold maintained the talks volition beryllium held done a 3rd party.

While it remains unclear who volition get their mode regarding the format of the discussions, Iran adept and elder chap astatine the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, said this nationalist contention betwixt Washington and Tehran is each a crippled of leverage.

"Both sides person an inducement to either overrepresent oregon underrepresent what is happening," he told Fox News Digital. "These are often the negotiations earlier the negotiations." 

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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters arsenic helium signs enforcement orders successful the Oval Office connected April 9, 2025. (Getty Images)

"For the White House, the tendency to beryllium seen arsenic having nonstop talks with the Islamic Republic is high," helium said, pointing to the deficiency of nonstop engagement betwixt Washington and Tehran dating backmost to his archetypal word and the regime’s heavy disdain for the president, arsenic witnessed successful an evident assassination attempt. 

While the Iranian authorities has agelong held contempt for the U.S., a sentiment that has persisted for decades, Trump is "very different," Ben Taleblu said.

The information adept highlighted the 2020 assassination of apical Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the crippling effect of the U.S.-sanctioned maximum-pressure run and Trump’s unfastened enactment for the Iranian radical arsenic the large issues that person rankled the Iranian regime.

"Trump is simply a precise bitter pill to swallow, and I deliberation the ultimate person of Iran erstwhile said that the footwear of Qasem Soleimani has much grant than the caput of Trump," Ben Taleblu said. "Being seen arsenic straight negotiating with idiosyncratic [like that] would beryllium making the Islamic Republic look similar a supplicant. 

"The U.S. wants to beryllium seen arsenic having driven Iran to the negotiating table, and the Islamic Republic does not privation to beryllium seen arsenic being driven to the negotiating table," helium added. 

Iranian Quds Force commandant Qassem Soleimani is shown successful 2016. (Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

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Tehran’s main vantage is the information that, contempt terrible U.S. sanctions and geopolitical attempts to halt its improvement of a atomic weapon, it has made superior gains successful its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons-grade quality, arsenic good arsenic with its rocket program, a captious constituent successful being capable to really occurrence a atomic warhead.

It besides has drastically person ties with main U.S. adversarial superpowers similar Russia and China, whose presumption and engagement successful countering Western attempts to disarm a atomic Iran remains an chartless astatine this point. 

While Iran holds important leverage erstwhile it comes to negotiating with the Trump medication connected its atomic program, Washington has a plethora of levers it tin usage to either incentivize oregon coerce Tehran into adhering to planetary calls for the extremity of its atomic program.

"The U.S. really has a heck of a batch of leverage here," Ben Taleblu said, pointing to not lone much economical sanctions, including "snapback" mechanisms nether the United Nations Security Council, but besides subject options.

Trump past period threatened to "bomb" Iran if it did not prosecute successful atomic talks with the U.S.

But immoderate person questioned however agelong the medication volition let negotiations to persist arsenic JCPOA-era snapback sanctions expire successful October 2025.

The White House would not corroborate for Fox News Digital immoderate clip restrictions it has issued to Iran, but Trump connected Wednesday told reporters, "We person a small time, but we don’t person overmuch time."

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies analyzed wherever Iran's atomic infrastructure is located. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)

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"The authorities has its backmost against the wall," Ben Taleblu said. "A subject option, fixed what has been happening successful the Middle East since Oct. 7, 2023, is an progressively credible enactment against the Islamic Republic of Iran."

"And the authorities is engaging, now, to hold and forestall a subject enactment from ever materializing," helium added. "They are hoping to usage talks with the Americans arsenic a quality shield against the Israelis."

"So agelong arsenic you're talking to America, the Israelis aren't shooting astatine you," Ben Taleblu continued. 

Trump this week said that it would beryllium Israel who would instrumentality the pb connected a subject onslaught connected Iran, not the U.S., should atomic talks fail, which again could beryllium a negotiating maneuver arsenic Israel has already demonstrated it volition not hesitate to militarily prosecute with Iran.

"Pursuing wholesale disarmament of the Islamic Republic of Iran is incredibly risky, and it doesn't person a large way grounds of succeeding," Ben Taleblu said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks to President Donald Trump during a gathering successful the Oval Office connected April 7, 2025. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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The Iranian adept said the lone mode to really instrumentality connected the Islamic Republic would beryllium done a "broader" and "more holistic" strategy that focuses not lone connected atomic nonproliferation but removing the "Axis of Resistance," scaling up sanctions and having a "ground game" to antagonistic the authorities done cyber, governmental and telecommunication strategies "for erstwhile Iranians spell retired into the thoroughfare and protestation again."

"What the Islamic Republic would ever privation is to person you absorption connected the occurrence and not connected the arsonist, and the arsonist is rather virtually a authorities that has tried to termination this president," Ben Taleblu said.