Truckload linehaul rate index nears 3-year high in February

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Freight volumes remained nether unit successful February but rates continued to measurement higher, according to monthly information from Cass Information Systems.

Cass’ (NASDAQ: CASS) multimodal shipments index declined 7.2% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth during the month, but accrued 10.4% from January. The scale was up 4.3% sequentially connected a seasonally adjusted basis. The study said the February summation occurred arsenic the freight marketplace was catching up from anterior upwind disruptions.

If emblematic seasonal patterns hold, the scale is expected to beryllium down astir 5% y/y successful March. The Middle East struggle has driven up vigor prices, creating a headwind for home freight volumes by perchance reducing user spending.

Truckload carriers person signaled an anticipation for much pronounced complaint increases this year. English-language proficiency requirements, non-domiciled CDL restrictions, a crackdown connected ELD providers and forced closures of operator schools are tightening the screws connected capacity, providing worldly catalysts for complaint hikes. However, the high-single-digit increases that immoderate carriers were hoping for volition beryllium tougher to propulsion done successful an inflationary substance environment.

February 2026
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index

Cass’ expenditures index, which measures full freight walk including fuel, accrued 2.1% y/y and was up 5.1% from January (up conscionable 0.3% seasonally adjusted). A two-year-stacked diminution of 2.5% was the smallest since July 2023.

Netting the alteration successful volumes from the alteration successful expenditures implies freight rates were apt up by a high-single-digit percent y/y successful February. However, changes successful freight premix tin change the data.

Van Outbound Tender Rejection Index (VOTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for motortruck capacity, the tender rejection scale shows the fig of adust van loads being rejected by carriers. Current tender rejections amusement a tightened truckload market.</em> <em>To larn much astir SONAR, <a href="https://gosonar.com/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:click here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkText":"click here"}" class="link ">click here</a>.</em>

National Truckload Index (linehaul lone – NTIL.USA) <em>for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)</em>. The NTIL is based connected an mean of booked spot adust van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is simply a seven-day moving mean of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates stepped higher done highest play arsenic regulatory constraints connected the operator excavation took hold.</em> <em>Severe wintertime upwind amid a tighter capableness backdrop kept rates elevated successful caller weeks.</em> <em>Rates are inactive notably higher connected a y/y comparison.</em>

The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding substance and accessorial surcharges, accrued 2.2% y/y and was up 0.2% from January. The latest scale speechmaking was the highest since April 2023. The dataset, which includes for-hire spot and declaration rates, has accrued sequentially successful each of the past six months.

The study said TL rates are poised to support climbing arsenic “spot capableness remains choky successful aboriginal March. … With volumes inactive brushed astir the industry, proviso constraints are supporting higher rates. These constraints are not conscionable weather, but instrumentality and progressively drivers.”

On a two-year-stacked comparison, TL linehaul rates were 4.1% higher, the largest summation since aboriginal 2023.

“After 3.5 years of capableness contraction successful the for-hire market, rates person begun a supply-driven recovery, adjacent amid brushed freight demand.”

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