Tougher calls ahead: Five questions for the ECB

By Yoruk Bahceli and Stefano Rebaudo

LONDON (Reuters) -The European Central Bank is acceptable to chopped rates again connected Thursday, but investors haven't been this unsure successful a portion connected what comes next.

U.S. tariff risks are intensifying portion the ECB whitethorn person to grapple with the interaction of a caller German government, a imaginable Ukraine ceasefire and an expected surge successful defence spending.

Meanwhile, policymakers look progressively divided connected however accelerated they'll chopped rates from present aft 5 moves since June.

"It's nary longer a lawsuit of automatic pilot, reducing rates astatine each meeting," Zurich Insurance Group's main marketplace strategist Guy Miller said.

Here are 5 cardinal questions for markets:

1/ What volition the ECB bash connected Thursday?

That's simple: chopped its cardinal complaint by different 25 ground points to 2.50%.

The appraisal of financing conditions is besides successful absorption arsenic this could beryllium a mode to hint astatine the post-March complaint outlook.

"It volition beryllium important to spot if the connection reiterates that ECB argumentation is inactive restrictive oregon if we are much astatine a neutral stance," ING's planetary caput of macro, Carsten Brzeski, said.

Any comments connected the fallout of past week's ECB outgo systems outage whitethorn besides beryllium a focus.

2/ Will complaint cuts proceed aft March?

Markets deliberation so, but expect a bumpier way ahead.

They terms successful astir 80 bps of complaint cuts by year-end - 3 much moves to 2% and a accidental of a 4th to 1.75%. That's successful enactment with a neutral complaint that neither stimulates nor restricts maturation the ECB estimates astatine 1.75%-2.25%.

Still, traders expect astir a 60% accidental of an April cut, highlighting uncertainty.

Many policymakers dependable connected committee with markets' eventual expectation, but the statement connected the gait is heating up.

Top hawk Isabel Schnabel, for example, questions whether ECB argumentation is inactive restrictive, though policymakers wide consciousness it inactive is.

So, immoderate governors whitethorn propulsion for a intermission successful April, Swedish slope SEB reckons.

But wage maturation - thought to person underpinned the precocious services ostentation which has been worrying hawks - volition autumn fast, an ECB tracker suggests. And information connected Monday showed services ostentation slowed to 3.7% aft hovering adjacent 4% for astir of the past year.

Portugal's Mario Centeno, a dove, warns that ostentation could driblet beneath people fixed a anemic economy.

3/ How volition the ECB measure the interaction of tariffs truthful far?

To day lone a 10% U.S. tariff against China has gone into effect with an further Chinese tariff on with measures against Canada and Mexico acceptable to commencement connected Tuesday, truthful the ECB won't origin them into argumentation yet.