Toppling Maduro was easy — governing Venezuela could trap US for years

President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States volition temporarily "run" Venezuela pursuing the seizure of Nicolás Maduro whitethorn beryllium to beryllium a defining infinitesimal for the Western Hemisphere—either a disciplined effort to reconstruct determination stableness oregon the opening section of an avoidable, open-ended entanglement.

At his Mar-a-Lago property league connected Saturday, the president stated plainly, "We volition tally the state until specified clip arsenic we tin bash a safe, due and judicious transition." He added that members of his nationalist information squad lasting down him would oversee the effort and did not regularisation retired "boots connected the ground." Hours later, speaking aboard Air Force One, helium sharpened the connection further: "We’re going to tally it, hole it."

The strategical logic is casual to understand. Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven lipid reserves and has go a hub for narcotics trafficking, corruption and malign extracurricular influence. The administration’s December 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly embraces what it calls a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine — pledging to contradict non-hemispheric competitors specified arsenic China, Russia and Iran power implicit strategically captious assets successful the Americas. In that framework, Venezuela is not simply a humanitarian tragedy; it is simply a trial case.

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But this is precisely wherever acquisition should sober ambition.

The archetypal problem: Who is really successful charge?

A cardinal contradiction present confronts Washington. How does the United States "run" Venezuela erstwhile its constitutionally designated vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, has already been sworn successful domestically arsenic interim president pursuing Maduro’s removal?

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Rodríguez’s assertion to authority—backed by Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice and regime-loyal institutions—is rejected by Washington arsenic illegitimate. Yet successful applicable terms, ministries, information forces and determination authorities wrong Venezuela stay staffed by officials loyal to the aged system. That means the United States is not governing Venezuela successful name, instrumentality oregon day-to-day administration—even arsenic statesmanlike rhetoric suggests otherwise.

This disconnect betwixt declared authorization and existent power is wherever post-conflict operations often fail.

Lessons written successful blood: Iraq and the outgo of improvisation

I learned that acquisition firsthand. In 2002 and 2003, I served arsenic a subordinate of then–Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s Military Analyst Group. We were fixed extended entree — briefings, question and candid discussions with officials readying some the Iraq penetration and what would follow.

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In aboriginal 2003, respective of america met with retired officers outlining postwar governance plans. We asked basal but indispensable questions: Who would unafraid ministries? How would section governance function? How would electricity, h2o and substance organisation beryllium restored? The answers were often vague, much aspirational than operational.

After the invasion, I visited Baghdad and met with Coalition Provisional Authority officials nether Ambassador Paul Bremer. Again, the gaps were obvious. We had removed a authorities but had not built the machinery needed to forestall the vacuum that follows. 

One determination inactive echoes: the CPA’s bid dissolving Iraq’s information institutions, including the Ministry of Defense. RAND’s authoritative past records that the bid was issued with small objection astatine elder levels, adjacent arsenic misunderstandings were masked by evident consensus. The effect was predictable—security collapsed, insurgency surged and the U.S. beingness expanded acold beyond its archetypal scope.

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Venezuela present risks a akin mistake. Capturing Maduro whitethorn beryllium to beryllium the casual part. Governing what comes adjacent is the hard part—and the portion America has excessively often improvised.

Panama is the incorrect analogy

Some person compared Venezuela contiguous to Panama successful 1989, erstwhile U.S. forces captured Manuel Noriega and rapidly installed Guillermo Endara arsenic president. The examination is tempting—and profoundly misleading.

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Panama was small, U.S. forces were already contiguous and a recognized successor authorities was acceptable to presume power. Venezuela, by contrast, has 30 cardinal people, nary broadly accepted transitional authorization and entrenched military-criminal networks embedded passim the state. What worked successful Panama cannot simply beryllium scaled up to Caracas.

"Not day-to-day governance"— what that truly means

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has since clarified that the United States does not mean to govern Venezuela "day-to-day." That clarification matters—but it raises its ain questions. If Washington is not moving ministries, courts, budgets oregon constabulary forces, what does that enactment look like?

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In existent terms, it appears the medication is signaling a exemplary of indirect power alternatively than occupation. The superior lever is economic, particularly oil.

Venezuela’s governmental and subject elites past connected entree to lipid revenues. Whoever controls export permissions, sanctions relief, security entree and dollar-denominated transactions controls the existent halfway of gravity. Conditioning entree to those revenues—while freezing assets overseas and coordinating sanctions enforcement with allies—offers Washington leverage implicit the apical of the strategy without governing the state outright.

That attack amounts to power without occupation: unit without American administrators moving Caracas.

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A narco-state is not a one-man show

There is besides a unsafe illusion astatine work—that removing Maduro dismantles the regime.

Maduro sat astatine the apex of a narco-state and was indicted successful U.S. courts connected charges of cause trafficking and narco-terrorism. But helium did not enactment alone. His powerfulness rested connected a web of generals, quality chiefs, judges, vigor officials and cartel intermediaries who enriched themselves nether the existing system. Many of those figures stay successful spot today.

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They are improbable to surrender quietly. Some volition question accommodation; others volition defy done bureaucratic sabotage, unit oregon the manipulation of nationalist fear. Without a credible transitional model anchored successful Venezuelan civilian nine and supported by planetary legitimacy, the strategy Maduro built whitethorn past him.

The questions that indispensable beryllium answered — now

If the medication wants to debar repeating Iraq, it indispensable reply respective questions publically and soon.

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What is the ineligible basis—and limit—of U.S. authority? Who provides contiguous security, and nether what rules? Which Venezuelan partners volition beryllium empowered to lead? What economical program serves Venezuelans first, not conscionable overseas interests? And however does this ngo end?

Once the United States assumes work for "running" different country, it inherits work not lone for occurrence but for failure.

Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro addresses supporters during a rally marking the day of the 19th-century Battle of Santa Ines successful Caracas, Venezuela, connected Dec. 10, 2025.  (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images)

A constrictive way forward

The Trump medication tin inactive marque Venezuela a exemplary alternatively than a warning. But doing truthful volition necessitate discipline: intelligibly defined objectives, credible Venezuelan partners, continuity successful information forces, transparent reconstruction tied to humanitarian alleviation and an exit strategy that is real—not rhetorical.

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Venezuela is not Iraq. But past has a mode of repeating itself erstwhile mentation yields to improvisation.

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