TikTok Shop Could Be a Top-3 Global Retailer by 2030, Report Shows

TikTok Shop could soon beryllium bigger than Walmart, a caller study shows.

As e-commerce continues to turn rapidly, a caller study from commerce bureau Flywheel projects that ByteDance, the Chinese proprietor of TikTok Shop, could go a top-three planetary retailer crossed each categories by 2030.

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The study estimates that TikTok Shop could beryllium liable for 14.6 percent of planetary marketplace stock by 2030, driving astir $1 trillion successful sales. It besides estimates that Amazon volition instrumentality the number-one spot with a projected $1.1 trillion successful sales, followed by different Chinese e-commerce platform, Pinduoduo, astatine fig two.

Walmart, presently the biggest retailer successful the world, is projected to fertile number-five by then, making it the lone retailer successful the projected top-five whose income are chiefly made in-store versus online.

TikTok Shop is presently disposable successful 17 countries including the U.S.; U.K.; European markets similar France and Germany, and astir of Southeast Asia. Douyin, which is the sister app of TikTok Shop disposable successful mainland China, is liable for overmuch of ByteDance’s societal commerce business. Market quality institution ECDB reported Douyin’s GMV successful 2024 exceeded $500 billion, acold outpacing TikTok Shop’s show successful immoderate different geography.

Still, TikTok Shop is increasing accelerated globally and continues to rotation retired to further countries. In the U.S., TikTok Shop is the largest societal commerce level and exceeded $15 cardinal successful income successful 2025, per eMarketer. Beauty is the ascendant class connected TikTok Shop, with brands similar Medicube, Tarte Cosmetics, WavyTalk and much being among the apical quality brands connected the platform. Health and wellness, location goods and women’s apparel are besides increasing categories.

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