The new Trump trades: how investors are navigating Iran shocks 

By Naomi Rovnick

LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Investors are piecing unneurotic a caller "Trump trade" playbook for navigating marketplace uncertainty, ranging from whether a U.S.-Iran ceasefire volition clasp to lipid prices staying precocious for longer.

With planetary ostentation and involvement rates progressively pugnacious to foretell arsenic geopolitics predominate ‌the economical outlook, moving wealth connected the ground of semipermanent views is proving challenging.

Many investors are alternatively placing shorter-term bets connected assets that whitethorn ‌have go mispriced during the Iran war.

Here's a rundown of immoderate of the caller Trump trades.

1/HIGHER FOR LONGER OIL

Oil tumbled astir 15% connected Wednesday to beneath $100 a tube connected the ceasefire but the ​price is expected to stay higher for longer fixed uncertainty implicit the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil futures for six months' clip commercialized astir $79, higher than earlier the warfare began connected February 28.

They person tended to driblet sharply connected days erstwhile a detente looks much apt and immoderate analysts accidental they person swung excessively low.

Even a palmy ceasefire with nary further tensions would enactment a level nether the lipid terms of $85 per tube by year-end, said Societe Generale's planetary caput of commodities probe Michael Haigh, adding that if ‌states present much conscious astir vigor information began stockpiling ⁠oil, it would beryllium higher.

That is 1 crushed investors, who person agelong avoided unloved vigor shaper stocks, are little bearish. A Bank of America survey dated March 31 recovered that portion 30% of investors clasp a antagonistic stance connected the sector, which is ⁠hampered by ESG concerns, this has dropped from 40% six months ago.

Shell said connected Wednesday it sees stronger lipid trading ahead.

2/ CANADA, NORWAY

The U.S. dollar has regained lustre aft months successful the doldrums, but if warfare recedes and saps request for the reserve currency portion crude prices stay elevated past the currencies of immoderate oil-producing nations could shine, investors ​said.

"It ​will instrumentality a portion for everything to ramp up again, for the tankers to question again, ​and lipid prices mightiness person a higher floor," Russell Investments' ‌global caput of solutions strategy Van Luu said, discussing a imperishable ceasefire scenario.

"If lipid prices are $85 to $100 (a barrel) past vigor exporters successful politically unchangeable countries, and you could see Norway and Canada successful that camp, should bash better."

3/ BOND BOUNCE-BACK?

U.S. President Donald Trump's ceasefire pledge sent British and euro portion authorities borrowing costs plunging arsenic nerves astir ostentation among vigor importers ebbed.