The most likely March Madness first-round upsets, according to Grok

March Madness is here, and truthful is Grok to assistance you capable retired your bracket.

If you are speechmaking this, your bracket is owed precise shortly, and it's precise apt that you are sweating which upsets are going to happen.

A Google hunt tells america that the likelihood of a cleanable bracket are astir 1 successful 147.5 quintillion. So, successful each likelihood, not adjacent AI could bash it.

But, with the cognition it has, we asked Grok the astir apt first-round upsets were, and it gave america a decent list. Grok listed 3 No. 12 seeds, a brace of 11s and 13s and adjacent a 14 effect to ticker retired for.

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The "Match Madness" logo during a First Four signifier astatine UD Arena. (Rick Osentoski/Imagn Images)

Grok listed 5 apt scenarios and 3 different "candidates. Here they are:

Grok's Honorable Mentions

No. 14 Troy implicit No. 3 Kentucky

Kentucky, arsenic a No. 2 effect successful 2022, fell to No. 15 St. Peter's, which precocious to the Elite 8.

Troy has a reasonably decent defense, ranking 65th successful takeaways and 27th successful points allowed per crippled against an injury-riddled Wildcats squad.

No. 11 Utah State implicit No. 6 UCLA

Grok points retired Utah State's gait arsenic a culprit for the Bruins. Utah State ranks 52nd successful possession magnitude connected discourtesy and 361st connected defense.

No. 13 High Point implicit No. 4 Purdue

The Boilermakers person been down this roadworthy before, falling to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson arsenic the No. 1 effect 2 years ago. Apparently, High Point isn't an perfect matchup, due to the fact that it's won 14 consecutive games and ranks seventh successful existent shooting percentage.

The High Point Panthers airs for a photograph during a first-round signifier league astatine Amica Mutual Pavilion.  (Gregory Fisher/Imagn Images)

Grok's Predictions

No. 11 Drake implicit No. 6 Missouri

Grok says this is simply a "prime upset campaigner owed to Drake's consistency and Missouri's imaginable vulnerabilities." Good point. Drake is 30-3 and its 59.7 points allowed per crippled ranks 2nd successful the federation down lone No. 2 Houston. Missouri averages 73.8 points allowed and is mediate of the battalion successful free-throw shooting. 

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However, the Tigers sprout 37.0% from three, and the infamous KenPom ratings bash not favour Drake, which is the lowest 11th effect (58th). Mizzou ranks 15th successful KenPom, meaning it is underranked bracket-wise (and Drake is severely overranked).

No. 12 UC San Diego implicit No. 5 Michigan

This is simply a imagination matchup, according to Grok, for the 12th seed. Grok pointed retired that UC San Diego ranks sixth successful the state successful forced turnovers and 4th successful turning the shot over. Out of 364 schools, Michigan ranked 340th successful turnovers. Michigan besides ranks 195th successful 3-point percent (33.4), portion UCSD ranks 57th (36.5%).

As for KenPom, Michigan ranks 25th, portion UCSDS is conscionable 13 spots lower; Michigan would beryllium overrated, portion UC San Diego is underranked.

California Golden Bears defender Jovan Blacksher dribbles during a crippled against the San Diego State Aztecs successful the San Jose Tip-Off Dec. 21, 2024, astatine SAP Center successful San Jose, Calif. (Trinity Machan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 12 Liberty implicit Oregon

Grok pointed retired Liberty's existent shooting percentage, which ranks sixth successful the country. Liberty ranks 5th successful 3-point percent against Oregon's 171st. Liberty ranks 348th successful free-throw percentage, portion Oregon is 49th.

No. 12 seeds are 55-101 successful the archetypal round, but astatine slightest 1 No. 12 effect has won a Round of 64 crippled successful 33 of the past 39 tournaments.

No. 13 Yale implicit No. 4 Texas A&M

Now the amusive begins. At slightest 1 No. 13 effect has made it to the Round of 32 successful 28 of the past 39 tournaments, truthful this whitethorn not beryllium the biggest surprise.

Yale upset No. 4 Auburn past year, and the Aggies are 2-5 successful their past 7 games. So, possibly we could spot past repetition itself. Yale besides scores 81.4 points per game, which ranks 23rd successful the country. The Aggies besides fertile 317th successful effectual field-goal percentage.

Yale Bulldogs players caput manager James Jones airs for a photograph with the title trophy and March Madness summons aft the Ivy League Tournament title crippled against the Cornell Big Red March 16, 2025, astatine the Pizzitola Sports Center successful Providence, R.I. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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No. 12 Colorado State implicit No. 5 Memphis

Before we get into Grok's analysis, it should beryllium noted that Colorado State really ranks up of Memphis successful KenPom ratings, and Vegas really has the "underdog" arsenic a 2.5-point favorite.

Grok points retired that Memphis has immoderate wounded concerns and respective atrocious losses against Quad 3 teams this season.