The 5 Big ‘Known Unknowns’ of Donald Trump’s New War With Iran

During his career arsenic a existent property mogul, Donald Trump repeatedly bankrupted casinos. In his 2nd word arsenic president, Trump continues to indulge his emotion of high-stakes gambits—and the war-entirely-of-personal-choice helium launched implicit the play with Iran mightiness beryllium the biggest gamble yet of his full governmental career. The evident decease of Iran’s ultimate person successful the opening hours of the warfare lone heightens the information for Trump, his warfare spouse Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the full region, and the satellite beyond.

On the 1 hand, the events of the play truthful acold look all-but foreordained. It was a warfare that astir everyone could spot coming—the US subject buildup has been underway for months and, successful galore ways, Trump’s been connected this roadworthy since May 8, 2018, erstwhile helium jettisoned the Iranian atomic woody known arsenic the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which had been cautiously negotiated by the Obama medication to bounds Iran’s way toward an atomic weapon. Similarly, the Iranian effect to the war’s opening salvos—missiles and retaliatory strikes against different Gulf States, including Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan—had been wide foreseen and telegraphed.

But wherever the warfare goes from here—how agelong and however far-reaching—and the destiny of Iran’s authorities successful the days, weeks, and months up basal arsenic immoderate of the biggest unknowns ever contemplated successful a famously fraught and explosive region.

All of modern past tells america that upheaval successful Iran is the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings, with the imaginable of tremendous yet-to-be-understood consequences that could unfold for decades. After all, the US is inactive dealing with the downstream consequences of the last upheaval successful Iran astir a half-century ago, erstwhile the US-backed shah—originally enactment successful powerfulness by a 1953 CIA coup—was ousted successful 1979 by Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini and whose 86-year-old Ali Hosseini Khamenei successor led Iran until his decease successful the Israeli and American airstrikes this weekend.

In the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War—America’s archetypal large folly successful the Middle East of the 21^st Century—then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of the “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” of geopolitical events. Today, knowing immoderate of the “known unknowns” of Donald Trump’s expansive caller escapade successful Iran helps to marque wide the stakes of what’s ahead.

1. It has already caused American deaths. Donald Trump has been intelligibly emboldened successful his planetary rambunctiousness implicit the past twelvemonth by 2 large tactical subject successes—a bloodless-for-America airstrike run connected Iranian atomic facilities past year, carried retired with stealth bombers and successful conjunction with earlier Israeli airstrikes, arsenic good arsenic the stunningly audacious raid conscionable weeks agone to prehend Venezuelan person Nicolás Maduro, which besides was carried retired without a azygous US death. History, though, is ever a close-run thing—and earlier this week we received an unexpected model into an narrowly averted alternate history: At the State of the Union, Trump presented an Army peculiar operations pilot, Chief Warrant Officer 5 Eric Slover, with the Medal of Honor for his brave and cautious absorption aft being wounded 4 times by machine-gun occurrence portion piloting the pb MH-47 Chinook chopper connected the Maduro raid. It was connected the 1 manus a wildly inappropriate made-for-TV moment—one rushed by the Pentagon to align with the president’s whim, bypassing a deliberate process that usually takes months oregon years—but what was adjacent much absorbing was however it revealed that, but for 45-year-old Slover’s bravery, dedication, and fortitude, the Maduro cognition mightiness person gone wildly sideways. The clang of the pb chopper successful the raid’s opening minutes mightiness person tipped the full cognition from being seen arsenic a smashing, daring occurrence toward being remembered arsenic a debacle similar Jimmy Carter’s bungled effort to rescue Iranian hostages, Operation Eagle Claw, which killed 8 US servicemen and fatally injured Carter’s presidency.

There’s small crushed to judge that the caller Iranian operation, known by the muscularly Hegsethian moniker of “Operation Epic Fury”—a sanction seeming amended suited for a retaliatory vendetta than an out-of-the-blue war-of-choice—will stay semipermanent arsenic bloodless oregon costless to the US successful materiel, personnel, oregon economical toll arsenic Trump’s 2 different operations, Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve, some of which were efficaciously one-and-done strikes.

And, indeed, connected Sunday morning, US Central Command enactment retired a connection affirming that 3 US work members person already died, and 5 are injured, from the Iran operation.

Part of Donald Trump’s calculation successful striking Iran present is that Iran, weaker than it has been successful a generation, is improbable to retaliate with overmuch strength. Certainly Iran’s accepted retaliatory arsenal has been depleted successful caller years from its highest of world-ranging proxy panic campaigns. Israel since October 7 has done overmuch to dismantle Iranian proxy groups, including its ain daring onslaught connected Hezbollah utilizing explosive pagers, and Donald Trump’s 2020 assassination of Iranian wide Qasem Soleimani removed the longstanding mastermind of Iranian panic operations.

However, fewer strategists judge Iran's capableness to onslaught acold afield of the Middle East is zero. And quality officials proceed to pass that Iran is seeking to termination Trump officials progressive successful that Soleimani operation. (In 1 of Trump’s aboriginal moves of statesmanlike pique against critics, helium pulled the 3 information details that had guarded erstwhile caput of authorities Mike Pompeo, Pompeo adjutant Brian Hook, and erstwhile nationalist information advisor John Bolton, who had each been targeted by the Iranian regime.)

Iran has agelong been a important panic threat. As Trump himself outlined successful his bizarre overnight video this weekend, Iranian-backed panic campaigns bombed a US Marine barracks successful Beirut successful the 1980s and, much recently, helped to termination and injure thousands of US servicemen and women successful Iraq. (Trump also, oddly, seemed to insinuate that Iran played a relation successful the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole, a mentation that is not backed up by the FBI and US government’s heavy investigations of the al-Qaeda-orchestrated attack. He besides posted misinformation astir Iran interfering with US elections successful 2020 and 2024.)

The US is astatine its champion successful the opening minutes of a subject campaign, erstwhile its unparalleled quality capabilities and technologically blase subject tin maximize those advantages. But what happens erstwhile Iran has clip to muster a response? Trump himself seemed to expect this, saying successful his speech, that “the lives of courageous American heroes whitethorn beryllium lost.”

Which leads to:

2. What does Donald Trump deliberation triumph looks like? Trump rode to the Oval Office successful portion connected a question of nationalist dissatisfaction with the Forever Wars successful Iraq and Afghanistan.

It was a connection helium carried proudly connected the run way — nary little than J.D. Vance proclaimed his enactment for Trump successful the 2024 elections successful an op-ed entitled, “Trump’s Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars,” and saying that Donald Trump would beryllium the objection to the regularisation of the 21st period presidency. “My full big lifetime,” Vance wrote, “has been shaped by presidents who threw America into unwise wars and failed to triumph them.”

“I’m not going to commencement wars, I’m going to halt wars,” Trump declared successful his 2024 triumph code aft being returned to the presidency, and helium has spent overmuch of his 2nd word campaigning for the Nobel Peace Prize (settling, astatine 1 point, for the entirely-invented FIFA Peace Prize). Even astatine the opening of the week, arsenic portion of his State of the Union, the White House trumpeted however he’s “End[ed] Wars and Foster[ed] Peace.”

And yet for the 2nd clip successful arsenic galore months, Trump has present launched a decapitation onslaught against a US adversary with seemingly small plan—or adjacent interest—in what comes next. Venezuela, successful particular, has faded from the quality astir arsenic rapidly arsenic it appeared precocious past year. Huge uncertainty remains astir what signifier its nationalist enactment and American engagement mightiness instrumentality going forward.

In announcing Khamenei’s death, Trump posted connected Truth Social, “This is the azygous top accidental for the Iranian radical to instrumentality backmost their Country. We are proceeding that galore of their IRGC, Military, and different Security and Police Forces, nary longer privation to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us…. Hopefully, the IRGC and Police volition peacefully merge with the Iranian Patriots, and enactment unneurotic arsenic a portion to bring backmost the Country to the Greatness it deserves.”

The bombing, Trump promised, “will continue, uninterrupted passim the week or, arsenic agelong arsenic indispensable to execute our nonsubjective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!”

If the Bush administration’s program for what came aft toppling Saddam Hussein erstwhile seemed bladed and Dick Cheney’s pledge that “We will, successful fact, beryllium greeted arsenic liberators” appears overly optimistic successful hindsight, that pre- and post-war readying for invading Iraq looks Herculean compared to the deficiency of readying and strategical mentation that surrounded Trump’s solo propulsion for warfare successful Iran. He ne'er adjacent pretended to marque a meaningful lawsuit to Congress for subject action, and there’s nary wide stated goal—or representation of victory—coming from the White House different than the amorphous “regime change” and, evident anticipation that Iran was lone ever a fewer well-placed JDAMs and Tomahawk missiles distant from breaking retired successful democracy.

Trump, who has efficaciously pulled disconnected high-profile, surgical, tactical subject actions similar the 2019 sidesplitting of ISIS person Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, mightiness beryllium betting that nary 1 truly cares astir semipermanent planning. America, helium proves quality rhythm aft quality cycle, has an attraction span arsenic abbreviated arsenic his own. Perhaps helium doesn’t adjacent cognize what triumph with Iran looks like. As John Bolton told maine successful the fall, “He doesn’t bash expansive strategy.”

“It is precise hard for radical to understand,” Bolton said. “It was precise hard for maine to understand, due to the fact that you deliberation successful authorities that’s what it’s about—policy is what you do. That's not what Donald Trump does. Therefore, erstwhile radical speech astir a Trump doctrine successful planetary affairs, it’s a implicit phantasy to deliberation that there’s immoderate coherence to it astatine all.”

Much hangs successful the equilibrium successful Iran and crossed the Middle East successful the days up arsenic the satellite waits to observe whether Donald Trump either feels similar he’s succeeded oregon other loses involvement and moves on. Trump has frankincense acold made wide that nary US crushed troops volition beryllium involved. As now-Vice President JD Vance told the Washington Post, “The thought that we’re going to beryllium successful a Middle Eastern warfare for years with nary extremity successful sight—there is nary accidental that volition happen.” But conscionable however acold tin the US property its subject advantages and impact the Iranian authorities from the air?

Which leads to different “known unknown”:

3. Who, exactly, is Trump serving? One of the elephantine unknowns present is that President Trump’s ain concern interests are coming nether literal occurrence from Iran. In fact, portion the Trump family’s finances are famously opaque, it’s apt that the bulk of his wealthiness is present tied to 1 Middle Eastern royal household oregon another. In the years since his archetypal presidency, Trump and his household person go intertwined with galore Gulf states—the Saudi crown prince invested immoderate $2 cardinal successful Jared Kushner’s concern fund, Trump has a branded play people successful Dubai, and a institution backed by a UAE royal capitalist past twelvemonth purchased 49 percent of Donald Trump’s household cryptocurrency company. Not to beryllium retired done, Qatar, for its part, erstwhile was labeled a “funder of terrorism” by President Trump successful his archetypal term, but successful this 2nd has been cautiously currying favour by, among different things, donating a level to beryllium utilized arsenic Air Force One. The president—shortly thereafter and surely wholly coincidentally—offered an unprecedented statesmanlike defence guarantee.

All of those countries—and their royal families—are present nether occurrence oregon imaginable targets for Iranian missiles, drones, and panic strikes. It’s not a conspiratorial question to wonder: As Donald Trump weighs the imaginable paths up and erstwhile “enough is enough,” however volition helium beryllium influenced by what’s champion for the US vs. the geopolitical oregon fiscal pressures of his concern partners? And what volition these countries bash arsenic missiles deed civilian targets successful their territories? Saturday night, the Dubai International Airport, which has grown into 1 of the world’s main question hubs, was damaged by an Iranian strike. Trump has pledged, intermittently, to assistance Iranian protesters. But if it volition wounded his concern interests to proceed to wage warfare against the existing regime, it’s hard to spot him sticking to a plan.

Which leads to a fourth:

4. History is not connected Trump’s side. As overmuch arsenic “modern American” representation begins with the disastrous agelong process of the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has been America’s astir fraught Middle Eastern person and force for acold longer than either. In fact, determination is nary country, arguably, wherever much US presidents successful the past 8 decades person recovered geopolitical occupation and home governmental challenges astatine location than Iran—which was, galore forget, erstwhile 1 of America’s astir important economical and subject partners.

Eisenhower, wary of protecting British lipid interests, authorized the coup known arsenic Operation Ajax that deposed Iran’s premier curate and acceptable up the longtime reign of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Pahlavi, arsenic shah, the almighty “King of Kings, Light of the Aryans, and Shadow of God connected Earth” became a monolithic purchaser of American arms and an important anchor of stableness for the US successful the Middle East.

Later, though, darker notes appeared. Richard Nixon saw his presidency upended by lipid crises cautiously calculated by the shah; successful seeking to interruption that “Oil Shock,” Gerald Ford acceptable up a way that caused the illness of the regime, and Jimmy Carter mislaid his presidency implicit his handling of the Iranian hostage situation that followed the overthrow of the unpopular leader. Ronald Reagan rode into the White House connected a question of goodwill pursuing the merchandise of those hostages—partly, it turns out, due to the fact that associates of his run mightiness good person bargained with Iran to support the hostages from being released earlier to maximize his ain governmental benefit—but past spent overmuch of the 1980s engaging successful amerciable arms trafficking with Iran, which blew up arsenic the Iran-Contra scandal. His medication struggled, too, with the fallout of the Iran-Iraq War, including the tragic 1988 shootdown of Iran Air Flight 655 by the USS Vincennes, which killed 290 people—an incidental amended remembered successful Tehran than successful the US.

Indeed, astir Americans contiguous are excessively young to callback the years erstwhile Iran ranked down possibly lone the Soviet Union arsenic the country’s superior geopolitical foe. For astir a decennary successful the 1980s, the US fought a superior and costly shadiness warfare with Iran successful and astir the Persian Gulf; arsenic David Crist outlines successful his definitive history, The Twilight War, the US navy fought regular weapon battles with Iranian mosquito boats. Iranian dhows covertly mined the Persian Gulf arsenic spillover from the Iran-Iraq yet saw much than 500 ships attacked—a tonnage mislaid oregon damaged that was adjacent to astir fractional the shipping mislaid to German U-Boats successful the Battle of the Atlantic.

The conflict connected the water, though, was lone 1 facet of the US’s deadly confrontation with the post-revolution authorities that inactive runs Iran today. In the 1980s and ’90s, Iran orchestrated the killings of astatine slightest 80 radical astir the world. US officials pointed to Iran, arsenic well, arsenic a culprit of the deadly bombing successful 1996 of Khobar Towers successful Saudi Arabia, which killed nineteen American servicemen. The lawsuit proved a governmental flashpoint for some the Clinton medication and the aboriginal months of George W. Bush’s presidency, erstwhile a young Justice Department authoritative named Jim Comey helped pb the indictment of 14 individuals connected the eve of the expiration of the statute of limitations.

In the years after, Iran helped proviso the insurgency successful Iraq with explosives that killed and maimed thousands of US military; successful precocious 2006 and aboriginal 2007, US troops detained a twelve Iranian quality officers successful Iraq, including Brigadier General Mohsen Chizari, the regime’s caput of Iraq operations, and accused them with attacking US personnel.

More recently, Iran has been a regular adversary successful cyberspace—and portion it hasn’t demonstrated rather the acuity of Russia oregon China, Iran is “good astatine uncovering ways to maximize the interaction of their capabilities,” says Jeff Greene, the erstwhile enforcement adjunct manager of cybersecurity astatine CISA. Iran, successful particular, famously was liable for a bid of distributed-denial-of-service attacks connected Wall Street institutions that disquieted fiscal markets, and its 2012 onslaught connected Saudi Aramco and Qatar’s Rasgas marked immoderate of the earliest destructive infrastructure cyberattacks.

Today, surely, Iran is weighing which of these tools, networks, and operatives it mightiness property into a response—and where, exactly, that effect mightiness come. Given its past of panic campaigns and cyberattacks, there’s nary crushed to deliberation that Iran’s retaliatory options are constricted to missiles alone—or adjacent to the Middle East astatine all.

Which leads to the biggest known chartless of all:

5. How does this end? There’s an apocryphal communicative astir a 1970s speech betwixt Henry Kissinger and a Chinese leader—it’s told variously arsenic either Mao-Tse Tung oregon Zhou Enlai. Asked astir the bequest of the French revolution, the Chinese person quipped, “Too soon to tell.” The communicative astir surely didn’t happen, but it’s utile successful speaking to a larger information peculiarly successful societies arsenic aged arsenic the 2,500-year-old Persian empire: History has a agelong tail.

As overmuch arsenic Trump (and the world) mightiness anticipation that ideology breaks retired successful Iran this spring, the CIA’s authoritative appraisal successful February was that if Khamenei was killed, helium would beryllium apt replaced with hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And indeed, the information that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against different targets successful the Middle East continued passim Saturday, adjacent aft the decease of galore elder authorities officials—including, purportedly, the defence minister—belied the anticipation that the authorities was adjacent to collapse.

The post-World War II past of Iran has surely hinged connected 3 moments and its intersections with American overseas policy—the 1953 CIA coup, the 1979 gyration that removed the shah, and present the 2026 US attacks that person killed its ultimate leader. In his caller bestselling publication King of Kings, connected the autumn of the shah, longtime overseas analogous Scott Anderson writes of 1979, “If 1 were to marque a database of that tiny fistful of revolutions that spurred alteration connected a genuinely planetary standard successful the modern era, that caused a paradigm displacement successful the mode the satellite works, to the American, French, and Russian Revolutions mightiness beryllium added the Iranian.”

It is hard not to deliberation contiguous that we are surviving done a infinitesimal arsenic important successful ways that we cannot yet fathom oregon imagine—and that we should beryllium particularly wary of immoderate premature solemnisation oregon declarations of occurrence fixed conscionable however far-reaching Iran’s past turmoils person been.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has repeatedly bragged astir however helium sees the subject and Trump administration’s overseas argumentation arsenic sending a connection to America’s adversaries: “F-A-F-O,” playing disconnected the vulgar colloquialism. Now, though, it’s the US doing the “F-A” information successful the skies implicit Iran—and the agelong arc of Iran’s past tells america that we’re a long, agelong mode from the “F-O” portion wherever we recognize the consequences.

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