Sequoia’s Sean Maguire Compares SpaceX to ‘Nvidia Three Years Ago’ and Plans to Hold Forever

Sequoia Capital spouse Shaun Maguire went connected CNBC past week and said SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), freshly trading, looks to him "more similar Nvidia 3 years ago" than Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). He besides said helium plans to clasp his shares "forever." Sequoia is simply a longtime SpaceX backer, truthful the inducement to speech his publication is obvious. Still, the examination is worthy unpacking due to the fact that it is simply a circumstantial assertion astir wherever SpaceX sits connected the curve, and the curve has a recent, precise costly precedent.

The NVIDIA comparison, and wherefore helium rejected the Tesla 1

Three years ago, successful June 2023, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) traded astatine a split-adjusted $39.41. The AI thesis was contested, hyperscaler capex was conscionable opening to inflect, and bears framed the banal arsenic a cyclical spot sanction riding a impermanent GPU shortage. Since then, NVIDIA shares are up 419.89%, the institution carries a $4.95 trillion marketplace cap, and Q1 FY27 information halfway gross unsocial deed $75.25 billion, up 92% twelvemonth implicit year. CEO Jensen Huang called the buildout "the largest infrastructure enlargement successful quality history." You tin work the underlying 8-K here.

Maguire's framing implies SpaceX is astatine the analogous moment. Customers are real, the infrastructure thesis is concrete, and the aggregate has not yet priced successful what helium thinks 2029 and 2030 gross volition look like. Tesla gets rejected due to the fact that it often traded connected communicative alternatively than connected disposable contractual revenue. SpaceX's Connectivity conception generated $11.39 cardinal successful 2025, with conception adjusted EBITDA of $7.17 billion, increasing 49.8% twelvemonth implicit year. That is the portion of the concern already paying for the harder parts.

The three-year maturation catalysts Maguire is underwriting

He expects "dramatic growth" implicit the adjacent 3 years from 3 vectors. Starship, orbital information centers, and Starlink direct-to-cell. SpaceX says Starship V3 should transportation 100 metric tons to orbit, and the conveyance could yet trim the outgo to scope orbit by 99% oregon more. Drop motorboat outgo by 2 orders of magnitude and the addressable marketplace reorders itself.

The orbital information halfway transportation is wilder. SpaceX expects to statesman deploying orbital AI compute satellites arsenic aboriginal arsenic 2028, yet a constellation of perchance millions of satellites moving inference workloads successful sun-synchronous orbit. The xAI acquisition closed successful February 2026 and present forms the AI segment, which generated $818 cardinal successful gross successful the archetypal 4th unsocial portion burning operating currency connected compute buildout.