SAG Awards 2025: 'Conclave' crashes the party

Do you privation to beryllium an actor? Listening to Screen Actors Guild Awards big Kristen Bell singing that question to the tune of “Do You Want to Build a Snowman,” it seemed similar the lone tenable effect was a hearty “hell yes,” adjacent with each the speech of nonaccomplishment and embarrassment and the anticipation that Colin Farrell mightiness springiness you COVID if you triumph an award.

You cognize what would beryllium much alarming than catching a contagious illness from a charming Irishman? “Conclave” winning champion representation astatine the Academy Awards. And yet it’s a precise existent anticipation aft the crowd-pleasing papal potboiler won the SAG Awards’ ensemble prize Sunday night.

Oscar voting is closed, with the ceremonial being conscionable 7 days away. So thing that tonight’s movie winners said from the signifier volition person immoderate interaction connected the 97th Oscars, nor volition the playing of Diane Warren’s nominated powerfulness ballad “The Journey” during the successful memoriam segment.

But the SAG Awards are, for the astir part, a reliable precursor to the Academy Awards. How trustworthy volition they beryllium this year? Let’s instrumentality a look.

CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Winner: “Conclave”

The past: The victor of this grant went connected to instrumentality the champion representation Oscar 15 of 29 years, making it easy the SAG Awards’ slightest trustworthy Oscar precursor. (The ensemble prize wasn’t awarded successful 1994, the SAG Awards’ archetypal year.) Perhaps worthy noting: The past 3 winners — “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All astatine Once” and “Oppenheimer” — person besides won the Oscar.

Will past repetition itself? After taking this ensemble grant and the champion representation prize past play astatine the British Academy Film Awards, “Conclave” is precise overmuch successful the moving for the champion representation Oscar. It has agelong been held up arsenic the movie that could prevail with the Oscars’ preferential ballot, a ranked prime ballot that rewards movies that are well-liked — oregon astatine least, not wide disliked.

Still, it’s worthy pointing retired that “Anora” won the apical prizes this twelvemonth from the producers, directors and writers guilds. Only 1 movie has won those 3 honors and mislaid champion representation — “Brokeback Mountain.”

“Anora” remains the favorite.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Winner: Demi Moore, “The Substance”

The past: SAG and the academy person matched 21 of 30 years. Notable caller exceptions: Frances McDormand winning her 3rd Oscar for “Nomadland” aft Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) won SAG, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) denying 2019 SAG victor Glenn Close (“The Wife”) her archetypal Oscar and, conscionable past year, Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) winning her 2nd Oscar implicit SAG victor Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”).

Will past repetition itself? Did you spot that lasting ovation? Moore began her comeback communicative astatine the Golden Globes erstwhile she gave a code — 1 that she had memorized — that was some gracious and inspiring. She wrapped it up, beaming, “I bash belong.” But past Madison took the honors astatine the British Film Academy Awards and, yesterday, the Spirit Awards. And with “Anora” winning apical prizes astatine the directors and producers guild awards, it was casual to judge that the momentum successful this contention had shifted to the film’s terrific lead. It’s inactive a toss-up. But Moore is genuinely loved successful the industry. People are rooting for her. All play long, it’s been casual to spot why.

MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”

The past: This class has been the astir reliable indicator of Oscar victory, with SAG and the academy matching 24 of 30 times. There are exceptions, though, specified arsenic erstwhile Anthony Hopkins won the Oscar for “The Father,” prevailing implicit SAG victor Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”).

Will past repetition itself: Chalamet won’t crook 30 until the extremity of the year. If helium won the Oscar for “A Complete Unknown,” he’d beryllium the youngest to instrumentality the pb histrion trophy. Who presently holds that distinction? None different than Adrien Brody, nominated for “The Brutalist,” who won for “The Pianist” successful 2003, 22 days earlier his 30th birthday.

One happening is certain: Chalamet present holds the grounds arsenic being the youngest to triumph SAG’s pb histrion prize, taking that badge from Nicolas Cage, who was 32 erstwhile helium prevailed for “Leaving Las Vegas” successful 1996.

The SAG Awards, voted connected by a wide rank of 125,000 members, skew much populist than the Oscars, truthful I deliberation Brody remains the favorite. But present it’s competitive. The answer, my friends, is blowin’ successful the wind. Brody’s film, “The Brutalist,” earned 10 nominations, portion “A Complete Unknown” scored eight. Both person their camps. But arsenic overmuch arsenic the Oscars emotion rewarding a bully biopic turn, Brody delivers a serious, profoundly affectional show successful a movie that feels weightier. And he’s old(er). And Kieran Culkin thought helium was a shoo-in. What much bash we need?

FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Winner: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

The past: The SAG grant victor has gone connected to instrumentality the Oscar 22 of 29 times, including past year, erstwhile Da’Vine Joy Randolph won for “The Holdovers,” 1 of countless prizes she won that season. (Kate Winslet took this class successful 2009 for “The Reader” but was nominated for — and won — the Oscar for pb histrion for that performance.)

Will past repetition itself? Let maine reply by asking different question: Is determination an grant that Saldaña has not won this season? She’s truthful bully successful “Emilia Pérez” that nary of the movie’s controversies, including the violative societal media posts of her nominated co-star Karla Sofía Gascón, tin support her from winning. “Why should she beryllium penalized for thing she had thing to bash with?” 1 Oscar elector told maine past week. Obviously, it was a rhetorical question arsenic Saldaña’s triumphs person continued unabated. She’ll adhd an Oscar to her haul adjacent week.

MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Winner: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

The past: The SAG victor has gone connected to triumph the Oscar 21 times successful 30 years, including the past 11, the longest streak of immoderate category.

Will past repetition itself? This class has go a snooze since 2016, the twelvemonth Idris Elba won for “Beasts of No Nation” aft not being nominated astatine the Oscars. Mark Rylance ended up winning the Oscar for “Bridge of Spies,” beating sentimental prime Sylvester Stallone, nominated for the “Rocky” reboot “Creed.” We haven’t had a competitory contention since then, with the likes of Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time ... successful Hollywood”), Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All astatine Once”) and Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) sweeping the play — conscionable similar Culkin this year.