Rio Tinto's solid numbers mask a bigger question about what comes next

The numbers themselves were broadly successful enactment with expectations. Full-year EBITDA of $25.4 billion nudged fractionally up of the $25.2 billion consensus, with copper doing the dense lifting.

Low operating costs astatine the Escondida excavation successful Chile and favourable provisional pricing helped the part outperform, offsetting a weaker acceptable of aluminium results wherever costs came successful higher than anticipated.

Earnings per stock of 669c translated into a last dividend of 254c, reflecting a 60% yearly payout ratio successful enactment with what the marketplace had pencilled in.

The 1 mild blemish was nett indebtedness of $14.4 billion, somewhat supra the $14.1 billion consensus, driven by superior expenditure of $11.4 billion against guidance of astir $11 billion.

Production guidance for 2026, archetypal acceptable retired astatine Rio's December superior markets day, was near unchanged. Deutsche Bank flags, however, that the copper targets whitethorn beryllium blimpish fixed caller output trends astatine the Oyu Tolgoi excavation successful Mongolia and astatine Escondida.

Clean results, successful different words, but with the bigger statement astir M&A strategy inactive unresolved and the shares trading good supra Deutsche Bank's target, Fitzpatrick sees small crushed to get much constructive for now.