Project ramp-ups and expansions set to lift global iron ore output in 2026

GlobalData

Tue, January 13, 2026 astatine 10:15 AM CST 3 min read

Global robust ore output is projected to summation by 1.9% successful 2025 to scope 2,612.7 cardinal tonnes (mt), up from 2,564.4mt successful 2024. The humble maturation is contempt a softening of accumulation successful China owed to anemic home alloy request and a prolonged slowdown successful operation and infrastructure activity. This shortfall has been mostly offset by a emergence successful accumulation from India, Australia, Brazil and emerging producers specified arsenic the Republic of Guinea, Iran and Liberia.

Looking ahead, the planetary robust ore output is projected to turn by 4.5% successful 2026 to 2,728.9mt. This volition beryllium mostly supported by ongoing task ramp-ups successful the Republic of Guinea and Australia, arsenic good arsenic expansions successful Brazil. This volition beryllium followed by the ongoing expansions successful India, Liberia, and Iran, which volition further supports maturation trajectory. Meanwhile, China's output is expected to stay level astatine 2025 levels with conscionable 0.5% marginal growth.

The Republic of Guinea is an emerging player, with archetypal commercialized output from the Simandou (Blocks 1 and 2) and (Blocks 3 and 4) projects successful Q4 2025, supporting a increasing relation done 2035. The country’s robust ore output is expected to scope 35.4mt successful 2026, up from an anticipated 2.9mt successful 2025, supported by the ongoing ramp-ups astatine the Simandou projects.

In Australia, the world’s largest producer, output is anticipated to turn by 2.6% successful 2026, fuelled by the ongoing ramp-ups astatine MRL’s Onslow, Rio Tinto’s Western Range, and Fortescue’s Iron Bridge projects. Looking ahead, Australia’s accumulation is expected to ascent to 1.1 cardinal tonnes by 2035, enabling the state to support its presumption arsenic the satellite person successful robust ore production.

In Brazil, maturation successful 2026 volition beryllium chiefly driven by Vale, the country's largest producer, which is targeting 340mt-360mt by 2026. Expansions astatine different large mines, including Gerdau Mining’s Miguel Burnier and CSN Mineracao's Casa de Pedra, volition further boost the country's output. India, which accounted for 11.3% of planetary robust ore accumulation successful 2024, is expected to beryllium the largest operator of planetary proviso maturation successful 2026, with output anticipated to emergence by 3.6% to 318.5mt. This surge volition beryllium underpinned by beardown home alloy demand, important concern momentum, and a unchangeable argumentation environment.

India’s propulsion to standard its steelmaking capableness to 300mt by FY2030–31 underscores the request for reliable robust ore availability, further solidifying its strategical role. Additionally, the adoption of greenish alloy technologies, including DRI and hydrogen-based routes, positions robust ore arsenic a cardinal commodity successful the country’s semipermanent decarbonization agenda.