Pressed to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine, Putin seems likely to seek his own conditions

By signaling its openness to a ceasefire, Ukraine has handed the Kremlin a hard situation astatine a clip erstwhile the Russian subject has the precocious manus successful the war: Should Moscow judge a truce and wantonness hopes of making caller gains, oregon should it cull the connection and hazard derailing a cautious rapprochement with Washington?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly ruled retired a impermanent interruption successful hostilities, saying it would lone payment Ukraine and its Western allies by letting them replenish their arsenals. He has insisted Moscow wants a broad statement that would guarantee a lasting settlement.

The Kremlin responded cautiously to the quality of Ukraine accepting the U.S.-proposed truce during Tuesday’s talks successful Saudi Arabia, saying that it needs to cognize details of the discussions earlier expressing its view.

The cautious attack reflects Putin’s consciousness of the hazard that a blunt rejection of the connection could upset t entative efforts to normalize Russia-U.S. ties.

Observers accidental that alternatively of an outright rejection, Putin volition apt suggest linking the truce to definite conditions that would support Moscow’s interests.

Why would the Kremlin reason a ceasefire?

The Russian subject held the battlefield inaugural past year, making dilatory but dependable gains on respective sections of the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) beforehand line. The tempo of Russian advances accelerated successful the fall, erstwhile Moscow’s forces captured the astir territory since the commencement of the war.

Ukraine has sought to retake the inaugural with a astonishment foray into Russia’s Kursk portion that began successful August, seeking to distract Moscow’s forces from their violative successful eastbound Ukraine and marque gains that perchance could beryllium exchanged for Russia-occupied areas successful bid talks. The incursion, however, has diverted Ukrainian resources from defending the Donetsk portion successful the eastbound and it failed to stem Russian advances there. Now Ukrainian forces are connected the verge of losing their past remaining bridgehead successful Kursk nether the brunt of a swift Russian counteroffensive.

Moscow besides ravaged Ukrainian vigor infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones, destroying overmuch of its power-generating capacity.

Putin has repeatedly said a impermanent halt to hostilities astatine a clip erstwhile Russian forces firmly clasp the inaugural would lone let exhausted Ukrainian troops a interruption to remainder and rearm.

“As for the colony of the situation, I would similar to stress that it shouldn’t beryllium aimed astatine a little truce — immoderate benignant of a interruption for regrouping troops and rearmament successful bid to proceed the struggle — but a semipermanent peace,” Putin has said.

Moscow has made it wide it wouldn’t judge immoderate troops from NATO members arsenic monitors nether a prospective bid deal.

What does Putin want?

Putin cardinal goals stay what helium declared erstwhile helium launched the full-scale penetration connected Feb. 24, 2022: Ukraine renounce joining NATO, sharply chopped its army, and support Russian connection and civilization to support the state successful Moscow’s orbit. On apical of that, helium present wants Kyiv to retreat its forces from the 4 regions Moscow has seized but doesn’t afloat control.

Russian officials besides person said that immoderate prospective bid woody should impact unfreezing Russian assets successful the West and lifting different U.S. and European Union sanctions. The Trump medication has enactment a imaginable sanctions alleviation connected the table.

Along with that, Putin has repeatedly emphasized the request to “remove the basal causes of the crisis,” a notation to the Kremlin’s request to rotation backmost a NATO subject buildup adjacent Russian borders it describes arsenic a large menace to its security.

The Kremlin person has argued that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose word expired past year, lacks the legitimacy to motion a bid deal. Kyiv maintains that elections are intolerable to clasp amid a war. U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken of the request for Ukraine to clasp an predetermination successful comments that echoed Moscow’s view.

What much could Moscow demand?

Some observers noted that alternatively of an outright rejection of the projected truce, Putin could enactment guardant respective conditions.

Pro=Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov suggested Moscow could hold to a truce if Ukraine's allies halt arms supplies to Kyiv. The U.S. said it resumed weapons shipments and quality sharing with Kyiv aft it agreed to a truce Tuesday successful Saudi Arabia.

“Russia could accidental ‘yes, but’ to a ceasefire offer, accepting a 30-day truce connected information that an embargo is imposed connected arms supplies to Ukraine,” Markov wrote.

Another Moscow privation is simply a statesmanlike predetermination successful Ukraine, which would beryllium imaginable aft Ukraine lifts martial law.

“Peace would let Russia to power Ukrainian authorities and usage peaceful means to guarantee affable relations,” Markov said.

Moscow-based overseas argumentation adept Alexei Naumov besides predicted that Russia would apt judge the ceasefire connection if it leads to an predetermination successful Ukraine.

“There is simply a paradox successful these talks and bid initiatives – Ukraine and Russia are some vying for Donald Trump’s attraction and seeking to amended their positions with his help,” Naumov said successful a commentary.

Sam Greene of the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis said it would beryllium hard to ideate Putin saying a categoric “no” to the ceasefire proposal, adding that the Kremlin person “has already achieved successful immoderate ways much done this dialog process … past helium achieved successful a agelong clip connected the battlefield,” describing a little halt successful the U.S. subject assistance to Ukraine and the speech astir rolling backmost sanctions arsenic “big wins” for Russia.

Putin’s statements against a impermanent truce mean simply that Russia is “not apt to hold to a ceasefire without extracting assorted things on the way,” Greene said.

“The benignant of ceasefire that it mightiness beryllium funny successful is rather intelligibly not the benignant of ceasefire that the Ukrainians oregon the Europeans mightiness beryllium funny in, though the Americans whitethorn beryllium much malleable connected that,” helium added.

“Moscow has each crushed to judge that … if this process lands anywhere, it volition onshore successful a spot that is much oregon little connected Russia’s terms, arsenic agelong arsenic the process is being driven by Washington,” Greene said.