Preliminary assessment of the EU Light Vehicle CO2 roadmap changes

GlobalData

Mon, January 5, 2026 astatine 11:50 AM CST 9 min read

In brief, the 16th of December 2025 projected changes (yet to beryllium negotiated and finalised among stakeholders) to the existing model for the elimination of CO² from caller LV on-road emissions see the following:

• A bank/borrow mechanics astir the 2030 people allowing an mean of the 2030-32 achievements to beryllium used, efficaciously extending the deadline for compliance arsenic seen for the 2025 target.

• Rather than a 100% CO² simplification (versus the 2021 level) by 2035, the people volition beryllium a 90% chopped with the remaining 10% being achieved via different means including the usage of ‘green’ alloy positive immoderate allowance – up to 3% - for combustion-based technologies, though rules astir the signifier these volition instrumentality and what substance they tin tally connected volition beryllium imposed.

• Minimum quotas for ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicles) and debased emanation vehicles among fleets (non-private acquisitions) volition beryllium required. These targets look to beryllium country-specific and are significant, with German fleets, for illustration needing to execute >50% ZEVs by 2030. The rules volition lone use to ample companies.

• Removal of institution car incentives for non-ZEVs.

• A softening of the 2030 CO² simplification people (versus 2021 levels) for LCVs from 50% to 40% to bespeak the challenging modulation to ZEV that this assemblage faces.

• The instauration of a caller conception of idiosyncratic conveyance which volition efficaciously beryllium a tiny (max magnitude 4.2m), affordable BEV. Vehicles gathering the criteria for this conception volition beryllium counted arsenic 1.3 income alternatively than 1 merchantability (they volition gain ‘supercredits’), offsetting income of different vehicles that lend poorly to CO² reduction.

• A €1.8 bn ‘battery booster’ to beforehand home artillery compartment production, mostly via interest-free loans to European manufacture participants processing sites successful the EU.

This is not an exhaustive database of the changes, and the ensuing negotiations volition not beryllium implicit until good into the New Year. Refinements, objections, and clarifications volition nary uncertainty signifier the last result that passes into law, presumably astatine immoderate constituent successful 2026. Delay beyond this clip could enforce terrible costs connected the industry, arsenic models and powertrains to beryllium sold successful 2030 are already good into the improvement stage.

At GlobalData we took the determination successful the precocious summertime of 2025 to change our assumptions successful this cardinal argumentation area. At that time, we assumed that the flexibilities introduced astir the 2025 people would beryllium replicated for 2030 and 2035.

In the lawsuit of 2030, our ‘guess’ turned retired to beryllium spot on, and for 2035 our forecast alterations besides align beauteous good with the proposals, though we volition request to marque immoderate adjustments regarding which powertrain types volition beryllium sold beyond that year. All 4th 3, 2025 forecast updates were aligned with the alteration successful assumption. In short, we reduced the expectations for the EU+ BEV stock of PV income by circa 10 percent points crossed the longer-term EU+ forecast, cutting it from astir 60% successful 2030 to 50%, for example. To this extent, our existent presumption takes relationship of overmuch of the projected EU revision.