Phantom capacity tightens US-Mexico trucking market, Uber Freight says

The U.S.-Mexico trucking marketplace is tightening successful aboriginal 2026, but not successful the mode accepted freight indicators suggest, according to Uber Freight.

Instead of a demand-driven cycle, capableness constraints tied to security, compliance and operator qualification are reshaping however freight moves crossed the borderline — creating what 1 enforcement described arsenic “phantom capacity.”

“We’ve fundamentally seen successful Q1 … a tightening successful supply. It’s astir similar a supply-driven market,” Zeid Houssami, elder vice president overseeing Uber Freight’s cross-border business, told FreightWaves successful an interview.

Houssami said underlying request has remained comparatively stable, but usable capableness has shrunk owed to stricter information requirements and operational attraction on cardinal concern corridors successful Mexico.

San Francisco-based Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) operates 3 platforms: Uber (ride-hailing), Uber Freight (logistics), and Uber Eats (food and goods delivery).

‘Phantom capacity’ masking tighter marketplace

While header metrics specified arsenic spot rates and tender rejections whitethorn awesome a escaped market, Houssami said those indicators are progressively misleading.

“Demand hasn’t truly shifted. It’s truly been much proviso constraints, owed to information primarily, and past besides conscionable a consolidation of volumes connected circumstantial corridors,” helium said.

That dynamic is creating a increasing spread betwixt theoretical capableness and freight that tin really determination reliably — peculiarly successful cross-border lanes requiring vetted carriers and unafraid transit.

The result: little tender acceptance rates and accrued reliance connected the spot market, adjacent earlier a afloat pricing upcycle takes hold.

SONAR’s Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI.KRD) shows tender volumes remaining comparatively unchangeable to somewhat elevated successful aboriginal 2026, reflecting resilient cross-border request adjacent arsenic broader freight markets amusement mixed signals.

However, rising volatility successful tender acceptance — tied to compliance constraints and bearer selectivity — suggests that underlying capableness is tighter than volumes unsocial indicate. The divergence betwixt dependable OTVI and softer acceptance rates reinforces the “phantom capacity” narrative, wherever freight is disposable but harder to screen consistently.

Compliance, not drivers, driving shortages

One of the biggest constraints is not a deficiency of drivers overall, but a shortage of drivers who conscionable tightening compliance and information standards.

“There’s not truly a operator shortage — it’s much truthful it’s a compliant operator shortage,” Houssami said.

This favoritism is captious for cross-border freight, wherever information protocols, documentation requirements and bearer vetting are progressively limiting which capableness is really usable.