Padres' Mason Millers path to Cy Young requires unprecedented dominance from a closer

When Korn’s "Blind" blares from Petco Park’s speakers successful the apical of the ninth inning, the San Diego Padres' hostile knows the crippled is implicit due to the fact that Mason Miller is coming into the game.

The lights astir the ballpark flash connected and disconnected portion the euphony blares, moments earlier Miller turns the lights disconnected connected whichever unfortunate hitters person to look him.

The 27-year-old Pittsburgh autochthonal has been a antithetic benignant of ascendant truthful acold this season. In 11 games, helium has a 1-0 grounds with a 0.00 ERA, signaling 8 saves successful 11.1 innings pitched. He has allowed conscionable 4 baserunners to commencement the season, yielding conscionable 2 singles and 2 walks.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller throws a transportation during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

What makes Miller’s scoreless commencement to the play adjacent much impressive? He has faced 38 batters and struck retired 27 of them, bully for an otherworldly 71.1% strikeout percentage. He averages 21.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.

Yet, adjacent if Miller keeps up his video game-like commencement to the season, does helium person a realistic accidental to triumph the Cy Young? Highly unlikely.

The Padres person presently has the fifth-shortest likelihood to triumph the NL Cy Young, according to Draftkings.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes - +260
2. Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto - +380
3. Philadelphia Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez - +550
4. Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale - +950
5. Miller - +1500

So, what does Miller person to bash to feasibly person a accidental to triumph the NL Cy Young? Something not seen before.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller celebrates with catcher Luis Campusano aft defeating the Seattle Mariners astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

First, let’s look backmost astatine the erstwhile 9 relievers to triumph the Cy Young Award.

Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974

Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977

Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979

Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981

Willie Hernandez, Detroit Tigers, 1984

Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987

Mark Davis, Padres, 1989

Dennis Eckersley, for the then-Oakland Athletics, 1992

Eric Gagné, Dodgers, 2003

We tin safely regularisation retired Marshall (208 innings pitched), Lyle (137 innings pitched), Sutter (101.1 innings pitched), and Hernandez (140.1 innings pitched) arsenic comparisons due to the fact that Miller volition not transportation astir arsenic galore innings this season. Miller is connected gait to propulsion astir 81 innings this season.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller reacts aft defeating the Los Angeles Angels astatine the extremity of the ninth inning successful Anaheim, Calif., connected April 18, 2026. (Caroline Brehman/AP Photo)

Miller’s projected 81 innings falls successful enactment with the different 5 relievers. Fingers threw 78 innings, Bedrosian threw 89, Davis threw 92.2, Eckersley threw 80, and Gagne threw 82.1.

Bedrosian had a 2.83 ERA successful his year, but Miller volition person to transportation amended than that to triumph the award. Paul Skenes, who won the 2025 NL Cy Young, was 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA successful 187.2 innings pitched successful 32 starts.

Skenes, the odds-on favourite astatine the clip of this writing, presently has a 3-1 grounds successful 5 starts with a 3.27 ERA successful 22 innings pitched. His ERA is inflated due to the fact that helium allowed 5 runs and lone recorded 2 outs against the New York Mets connected Opening Day. In the 4 starts since, helium has allowed conscionable 3 runs.

So, let’s look further into Davis, Eckersley, and Gagné’s cases.

Davis, successful 62 games, had a 4-3 record, 44 saves, and a 1.85 ERA with 92 strikeouts successful 92.2 innings.

Eckersley, successful 69 games, had a 7-1 record, 51 saves, and a 1.91 ERA with 93 strikeouts successful 80 innings.

Gagné, successful 77 games, had a 2-3 grounds with 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA with 137 strikeouts successful 82.1 innings pitched.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller reacts aft pitching successful the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 9, 2026. (Denis Poroy/Imagn Images)

All of those seasons are incredible, but if they happened successful 2026, they astir apt wouldn't triumph the Cy Young. Baseball has changed excessively overmuch since erstwhile they won.

The 2 main differences betwixt eras are the innings successful which starting pitchers propulsion and the quantity of elite relievers successful today’s game.

In 2003, 20 pitchers threw implicit 200 innings. Last season, lone 4 pitchers threw implicit 200 innings, making starting pitchers who are some a) capable to propulsion 185-200 innings and b) with a precocious 1 and debased 2 ERA much invaluable nowadays than they were then.

Combine that with much relievers coming retired of the bullpen firing 100+ mph fastballs with wipeout off-speed stuff, it makes Miller not arsenic overmuch of an outlier arsenic helium would person been 25 years ago. No reliever is dominating rather similar helium is this season, but galore aren’t excessively acold off.

St. Louis Cardinals person Riley O'Brien has a 0.00 ERA successful 12 games with six saves successful 12.1 innings pitched with 14 strikeouts.

The voters aren’t arsenic taken to 1 person dominating contiguous similar they mightiness person 2 to 3 decades agone erstwhile not arsenic galore radical were doing it.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller throws a transportation during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

Unfortunately for Miller, helium mightiness go different prima person who becomes a unfortunate of a caller epoch of shot successful Cy Young voting.

Since 2016, lone 2 relievers person finished higher than 4th spot successful Cy Young voting: Baltimore Orioles’ alleviation ace Zach Britton (4th) and Cleveland Guardians prima person Emmanuel Clase (3rd).

In 2016, Britton, successful 69 games, had a 2-1 grounds with a 0.54 ERA with 47 saves, striking retired 74 hitters successful 67 innings. A whopping 79% of balls enactment successful play against him were groundballs. Yet contempt that, helium finished fourth.

Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello won the Cy Young that play instead. He went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA successful 223 innings pitched.

In 2024, Clase, successful 74 games, had a 0.61 ERA with 47 saves portion striking retired 66 hitters successful 74.1 innings.

Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won the Cy Young that play instead. He went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA successful 192 innings. Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo finished successful second, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA successful 206.2 innings pitched.

Reliever dominance isn’t valued the aforesaid successful today’s crippled arsenic it was then.

Aroldis Chapman had a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves for the Boston Red Sox past play successful 67 games and finished successful seventh place.

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San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller pitches against a Colorado Rockies batter during the ninth inning of a shot crippled successful San Diego, California, connected April 9, 2026. (Gregory Bull/AP Photo)

This isn’t to accidental Miller can’t triumph the award, but helium has a large uphill climb.

While helium isn’t apt to onslaught retired 71.1% of batters helium faces passim the season, and he'll yet springiness up immoderate runs, helium mightiness person to onslaught retired hitters astatine a humanities rate, portion besides starring the National League successful saves, to support the voters’ attraction passim the season.

This isn’t to accidental that the voters are unsighted to the relievers' ascendant seasons implicit the past decade, but caller past shows hitters mightiness person a amended accidental astatine getting connected basal against Miller than Miller does astatine winning the Cy Young Award.

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