Oddsmaker goes beyond brackets, discusses popular betting trends and upset wagers for March Madness

March Madness brackets are consuming households crossed America, but with the expanded legalization of sports gambling, much and much wagers are being placed connected the tourney games.

The tourney is the lone happening that could vie with the Super Bowl successful presumption of gambling, with 32 games being played connected the tribunal and each of them being watched by millions each implicit the country.

Picking upsets successful brackets is stressful capable — you cognize they volition happen, but you conscionable don't cognize which ones. But picking each of them connected a sportsbook mightiness really beryllium beneficial.

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General presumption of the 2nd circular of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament extremity disconnected betwixt New Mexico Lobos and Michigan State Spartans astatine Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse connected March 23, 2025, successful Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Mowry/Getty Images)

Since 2008, 12-seeds are 28-40 against No. 5 seeds — that .410 winning percent surely is not atrocious for teams that are usually underdogs of astir treble digits. Combine that with No. 11 seeds going astir .500 (37-39) successful the archetypal circular since 2006, and bettors whitethorn person cashed in, adjacent if their brackets were busted.

"That's wherever you instrumentality shots and that's where, you know, the upsets person occurred," Johnny Avello, an oddsmaker astatine DraftKings, told Fox News Digital successful a caller interview.

Since 2019, 10-seeds are besides 10-13 against 7-seeds, with 1 7-seed advancing due to the fact that of COVID-19 successful 2021. In the past 9 tournaments dating backmost to 2016, No. 9 seeds are 22-14 against No. 8 seeds, with the No. 8 squad winning the bulk of the games conscionable doubly successful that span.

Five players person been suspended this offseason for gambling, with a sixth connected the way. (Budrul Chukrut/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

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Because of these trends, Avello has seen respective little seeds shrink their constituent spreads, including No. 11 South Florida against No. 6 Louisville (7- to 5-point underdogs) and No. 12 High Point against No. 5 Wisconsin (12.5 to 9.5). No. 12 Akron has besides gone from 9.5-point underdogs to 7.5 against No. 5 Texas Tech.

Now, portion immoderate whitethorn privation to spell large oregon spell location with immoderate Nos. 13-16 seeds (kudos to those who stake connected UMBC successful 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson successful 2023), it whitethorn not beryllium wise. In fact, Avello said that tons of bettors spell dense connected the favorites successful those matchups.

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Avello opened No. 2 Purdue (who mislaid to the aforementioned FDU) arsenic 23-point favorites against Queens, but that dispersed is present up to 25. No. 2 Iowa State went from 23.5- to 25.5-point favorites against No. 15 Tennessee State, portion No. 3 Gonzaga besides saw its dispersed against Kennesaw State spell from 18.5 to 20.5.

Texas Tech remains the smallest five-seed favorite, but Vanderbilt and St. John's basal astatine -11.5 against McNeese State and Northern Iowa, respectively. For context, the largest dispersed successful a 5-12 matchup past twelvemonth was Clemson astatine 7.5 against McNeese, who pulled disconnected the upset. Two different five-seeds sat astatine -2.5.

A wide general presumption of the March Madness logo astatine halfway tribunal of the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena. (Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)

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And for what it's worth, 2 No. 13 seeds were single-digit favorites past year, but this twelvemonth they are each favored to triumph by treble digits.

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