NVIDIA Could 10X Its Sales. One Bottleneck Is Stopping It

3 days ago 3

Omor Ibne Ehsan

Thu, May 21, 2026 astatine 8:09 AM CDT 5 min read

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Nvidia (NVDA) posted Q1 gross of $81.62B vs. $78.86B estimated with Data Center gross astir doubling, portion Gavin Baker projects the company’s spot income could scope $2 trillion to $3 trillion by 2027 from astir $215B successful income past year. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) holds 72% of the leading-edge foundry marketplace and is investing $31.28B for precocious exertion capableness positive up to $20B successful Arizona expansion, with caller N3 fabs hitting measurement successful the archetypal fractional of 2027 and the 2nd fractional of 2027 respectively.
Taiwan Semiconductor’s 2-3 twelvemonth fab operation rhythm acts arsenic the captious constraint connected Nvidia’s maturation trajectory, forcing hyperscalers to perpetrate superior against existent silicon transportation windows alternatively than speculative demand, which prevents AI capex from overheating into bubble territory.
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Gavin Baker, the tech capitalist whose way grounds gives him an assemblage whenever helium sits down with Patrick O'Shaughnessy, floated a fig connected a caller podcast that should marque anyone modeling NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) aboriginal bash a double-take. NVIDIA's spot sales, helium argued, could turn to $2 trillion, perchance $2.5 trillion, perchance $3 trillion by 2027. The institution sold astir $215 cardinal successful chips past year. The precocious extremity of Baker's script is astir a 10x increase.

The absorbing portion is what Baker thinks is preventing it. A azygous constraint, successful his view, stands betwixt NVIDIA and that outcome: wafer proviso from Taiwan Semiconductor. And Baker says helium is gladsome astir it. If NVIDIA could physique arsenic overmuch arsenic it wanted, AI capex would extremity into bubble territory. The bottleneck is the circuit breaker.

What NVIDIA's bid publication already looks similar

NVIDIA posted yet different bushed successful Q1, with EPS astatine $1.87 adjusted vs. $1.76 estimated. Revenue came successful astatine $81.62 cardinal vs. $78.86 billione stimated. These figures exclude immoderate China information halfway compute. Data Center gross astir doubled, with hyperscalers accounting for fractional of it.

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The request pipeline down Baker's mathematics is concrete. Meta has signed a multiyear woody for millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. OpenAI has contracted for 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems. Anthropic has committed to 1 gigawatt, CoreWeave 5 gigawatts by 2030. Jensen Huang's work connected Q3 was succinct. "Blackwell income are disconnected the charts, and unreality GPUs are sold out."

You tin spot the lawsuit propulsion successful the equilibrium expanse too. NVIDIA carried $95.2 cardinal successful supply-related commitments astatine the extremity of Q4, wealth already promised to vendors to fastener successful wafers, packaging, and HBM. Wall Street's expert people sits astatine $275.31 against a banal that has risen 62.77% implicit the past year. The guardant multiple, 27x, looks astir restrained fixed a nett borderline of 55.6%.

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