New cold front? Kashmir standoff raises specter of US-China proxy fight

The hostilities betwixt India and Pakistan implicit the contested territory of Kashmir are igniting fears that a localized skirmish could boil implicit into a wider struggle and endanger the stableness of the region.

Watching intimately is China and President Xi Jinping, a enactment to the Kashmir quality with a involvement successful the outcome.

"For China, the stakes are high. Pakistan is its closest ally, and Beijing would not similar to spot it humiliated," Sadanand Dhume, elder chap astatine the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told Fox News Digital.

"Seen done the prism of U.S.-China competition, each state has a 'side' successful this conflict. China is joined astatine the hep with Pakistan, whereas the U.S. and India person grown progressively adjacent implicit the past 2 decades," Dhume added.

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President Donald Trump, right, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shingle hands during a quality league successful the East Room of the White House successful Washington, D.C., connected Feb. 13. (Photo/Alex Brandon)

The U.S. warfare successful Afghanistan aft 9/11 created a dependence connected Pakistan’s subject and quality that required adjacent cooperation. Since the withdrawal from Afghanistan successful 2021, U.S. engagement with Pakistan has been constricted and Islamabad has little relevance for Washington’s overseas argumentation aims.

Max Abrahms, an adept connected coercion astatine Northeastern University, told Fox News Digital that the combat implicit Kashmir could present go a venue for U.S.-China competition.

"The India-Pakistan struggle whitethorn look arsenic a proxy warfare wherever India is backed by the U.S. and Pakistan is backed by China," Abrahms said.

Yigal Carmon, president of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) and a erstwhile counterterrorism advisor to the Israeli government, told Fox News Digital that Kashmir is not conscionable a clash betwixt India and Pakistan. If the warfare escalates, helium said, it could pb to the dismantling of Pakistan and person repercussions successful Afghanistan, Iran and China.

Indian constabulary officers basal defender astatine a checkpoint adjacent Pahalgam successful southbound Kashmir aft assailants indiscriminately opened fired astatine tourists visiting Pahalgam, Indian-controlled Kashmir, connected April 22. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)

"Balochistan whitethorn soon get a de-facto independence. China volition beryllium 1 of the main losers of specified a development, arsenic it has heavy invested successful the Gwadar Port, located successful the Balochistan state of Pakistan," Carmon said.

New Delhi launched retaliatory strikes against Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir pursuing a deadly onslaught connected tourists successful the disputed Jammu and Kashmir portion connected April 22 that saw 26 radical killed by terrorists.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged a forceful response, saying the perpetrators volition beryllium pursued till the "ends of the earth."

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Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, hugs Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari astatine a signing ceremonial successful the Great Hall of the People successful Beijing connected Feb. 5. (Wu Hao HAO/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

How acold Pakistan volition people India is uncertain, but Pakistan’s military, which yields important power successful Pakistani politics, volition apt privation to exert a almighty effect and debar immoderate appearances that the state looks weak.

"If Pakistan suffers a humiliating defeat, it would weaken the military’s grip connected the country," AEI’s Dhume said.

Dhume besides said that immoderate struggle that unravels Pakistan’s home stableness would springiness a boost to separatist groups successful Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces who person agelong sought independency from Pakistan.

PAKISTAN CALLS INDIA'S STRIKES AN ‘ACT OF WAR’ AND CLAIMS IT SHOT DOWN INDIAN FIGHTER JETS

Chietigj Bajpaee, elder probe chap for South Asia astatine Chatham House, said that India volition effort to guarantee that the struggle remains constricted and absorption its efforts connected targeting terrorists, avoiding civilian casualties. 

Bajpaee told Fox News Digital that maintaining an anti-Indian stance is important to the legitimacy of the Pakistani subject and quality establishment, and adopting an assertive subject posture volition beryllium indispensable to assuage home pressures.

Paramilitary soldiers basal defender adjacent Pahalgam successful India connected April 22. (Waseem Andrabi/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

"Although I don’t spot an imminent anticipation of Pakistan breaking up oregon a spillover of the struggle into Iran oregon Afghanistan, the struggle could fundamentally change the narration betwixt the subject and the civilian authorities and population, which has already been successful decline," Bajpaee said.

The fearfulness for galore experts and policymakers is whether the clashes pb to inadvertent escalation betwixt 2 nuclear-armed powers. India and Pakistan person an estimated combined 342 atomic warheads, according to the Arms Control Association, and their atomic doctrines are motivated by their communal enmity and tendency to deter the other.  

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President Donald Trump has not yet engaged straight with Indian oregon Pakistani officials, but said Wednesday helium wants to spot them "work it out" and that "if I tin bash thing to help, I volition beryllium there."