National Fuel's FY25 Outlook Strengthens With Gas Price Tailwinds, Yet J.P. Morgan Holds Neutral Stance

J.P. Morgan expert Zach Parham retained a Neutral standing connected National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE:NFG) with a terms forecast of $81.00.

The expert anticipates a coagulated operational show for the institution successful the 2nd quarter, with accumulation expected to transcend statement by 6%.

The expert expects second-quarter EPS and EBITDA to align with the Street estimate, though with 6% higher volumes.

In particular, Parham sees second-quarter accumulation of 1,203 MMcf/d (108.2 Bcfe), vs. statement of 1,138 MMcf/d (102.5 Bcfe) and FY25 accumulation of 420.2 Bcfe vs. Street estimation of 417.5 Bcfe.

The expert projects level accumulation successful the 3rd 4th (108.3 Bcfe) and a flimsy diminution successful the 4th fourth (105.8 Bcfe), accordant with the company's accumulation forecast.

Parham predicts the institution volition rise its FY25 guidance erstwhile more, driven by higher earthy state prices.

The expert forecasts FY25 EPS of $7.43, surpassing the company’s guidance scope of $6.50 – $7.00 (based connected $3.50 per Mcf state prices) and is besides higher than the precocious extremity of the erstwhile guidance of $6.90 – $7.40 (based connected $4 per Mcf state prices).

The expert projects a 20% compound yearly maturation complaint (CAGR) for EPS done 2027 and anticipates important upside for FY26 earnings, with an estimated EPS of $9.22, which is 13% higher than the statement estimation of $8.17.

Despite NFG shares trading adjacent all-time highs, the expert notes the institution remains progressive successful its buyback programme and expects $34 cardinal successful stock repurchases this quarter.

The buyback which is expected to proceed astatine a accordant gait passim the twelvemonth to utilize the $200 cardinal stock repurchase authorization fully, adds the analyst.

Investors tin summation vulnerability to the banal via First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund (NYSE:EMLP) and First Trust EIP Carbon Impact ETF (NYSE:ECLN).

Price Action: NFG shares are up 1.02% astatine $79.13 astatine the past cheque Wednesday.

Read Next:

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