Musonoi ramp-up and Mutanda feed to drive DRC cobalt output in 2026

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to predominate planetary cobalt supply, accounting for astir 72% of full accumulation successful 2025. This starring presumption is underpinned by the country’s immense cobalt resources and long-standing strategical partnerships with Chinese mining companies, which person enabled large-scale excavation improvement and sustained output growth.

The country’s cobalt excavation output is estimated to person accrued by 3.7% to scope 237,300 tonnes (t) successful 2025. Supply maturation was driven chiefly by higher grades and expanded volumes from Glencore’s Mutanda mine, alongside the commencement of underground operations astatine the Musonoi task successful September 2025. The Musonoi project, jointly owned by Jinchuan Group (75%) and Gécamines (25%), has a accumulation capableness of astir 7,400t of cobalt and an estimated excavation beingness of up to 14 years, strengthening the country’s medium-term proviso outlook.

The accumulation trajectory is further supported by consistently beardown output from China Molybdenum’s (CMOC) large operating assets successful the DRC, peculiarly the Kisanfu (KFM) and Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) operations, which stay cardinal contributors to nationalist cobalt production. However, immoderate of this maturation has been partially offset by the suspension of operations astatine MMG’s Kinsevere excavation successful December 2024, reflecting challenging marketplace conditions marked by cobalt oversupply and declining prices.

Looking ahead, cobalt accumulation successful the DRC is projected to proceed rising successful 2026, with a 4.4% yearly maturation rate, supported by higher-grade provender from the Mutanda and the ramp-up of the Musonoi underground project. Despite short-term marketplace headwinds, these operational developments are expected to prolong affirmative accumulation momentum.

China’s power successful the DRC’s mining assemblage has been reinforced done the long-standing “minerals-for-infrastructure” (Sicomines) agreement, primitively signed successful 2008. Under this framework, Chinese companies gained entree to ample copper and cobalt resources successful speech for infrastructure improvement financed by mining revenues. While the statement has delivered superior and method expertise, it has besides raised concerns astir economical sovereignty, payment sharing, and argumentation influence.

In effect to prolonged home criticism, the Sicomines statement was revised betwixt January and March 2024. The revised presumption accrued infrastructure backing commitments to $7bn, up from $3bn, extending to 2040. Chinese operators proceed to payment from tax, duty, and royalty exemptions until 2040; however, the revised woody raises yearly royalty payments to the DRC Government to 1.2% and introduces a profit-sharing clause that allocates an further 30% of profits to infrastructure backing if copper prices transcend $12,000 per tonne, improving alignment with nationalist improvement objectives.