MSTR Investors: Mark Your Calendars for Jan. 15 — Billions Could Be Wiped Off in 1 Day

38 minutes ago 1

Rich Duprey

Sun, November 23, 2025 astatine 9:51 AM CST 4 min read

Bitcoin halving. Block reward gets chopped successful fractional each 4 years for crypto miners.

Strategy (MSTR) owns 649,870 bitcoin worthy astir $56B. That’s implicit 3% of each Bitcoin ever mined.
MSCI decides January 15 whether MicroStrategy tin enactment successful large benchmarks. JPMorgan estimates contiguous $2.8B of forced outflows if it is excluded.
Strategy has raised implicit $20B done convertible notes since 2020. Its mean acquisition outgo sits astatine $74,433 per Bitcoin. versus today’s $86,700.
If you’re reasoning astir retiring oregon cognize idiosyncratic who is, determination are 3 speedy questions causing galore Americans to recognize they tin discontinue earlier than expected. instrumentality 5 minutes to larn much here

Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the erstwhile business-intelligence bundle shaper turned Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holding company, present owns 649,870 bitcoin worthy astir $56 cardinal astatine today’s terms astir $86,700. That’s astir 3% of each Bitcoin ever mined and acold exceeds the company’s $500 cardinal yearly bundle revenue. Since 2020, enforcement president Michael Saylor has treated Bitcoin arsenic the company's superior treasury asset, raising billions successful convertible indebtedness and equity to support buying connected each dip.

On January 15, 2026, scale elephantine MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) volition determine whether companies whose main plus is cryptocurrency -- alleged “digital plus treasury” firms -- tin enactment successful large benchmarks similar the MSCI USA and MSCI World. Strategy is the astir salient large-cap institution that presently fails the projected rules: Bitcoin makes up implicit 90% of its full assets and dwarfs operating currency flow.

If MSCI kicks Strategy out, passive funds tracking those indices would beryllium forced to sell. JPMorgan estimates an contiguous $2.8 cardinal of outflows, with a imaginable full of $8 cardinal to $9 cardinal if the Nasdaq 100 follows suit. That mechanical selling could interaction Strategy's banal price, pushing it acold beneath nett plus worth (NAV).

Strategy has raised much than $20 cardinal done zero- oregon low-coupon convertible notes since 2020, including:

$2 cardinal 0% notes owed 2030 (issued February 2025)
$1.75 cardinal 0.625% notes owed 2028
Multiple smaller offerings maturing arsenic soon arsenic December 2025

These notes are convertible astatine premiums of 35% to 55% to the existent banal price, giving bondholders inexpensive upside portion Strategy gets near-free capital. The strategy works arsenic agelong arsenic Bitcoin keeps rising and the banal trades astatine a premium to its Bitcoin holdings.

When Bitcoin fell from $109,000 successful precocious 2024 to $80,700 this past Friday, the market-cap-to-Bitcoin-held ratio collapsed from 2.5× to astir 1.1×, making caller raises harder and much dilutive.