MSD’s 2026 sales forecast falls short amid patent losses despite strong Q4

Despite posting beardown results successful the last 4th of 2025, MSD (Merck & Co) has chopped its 2026 guidance much than analysts had expected arsenic the drugmaker prepares for the nonaccomplishment of exclusivity of respective of its medicines.

MSD reported Q4 planetary income of $16.4bn, a 5% summation from the aforesaid play successful 2024. Full-year income successful 2025 grew 1% to scope $65bn.

While year-end results outperformed statement expert expectations, capitalist buoyancy was overshadowed by the 2026 income forecast. The large pharma institution anticipates planetary income of betwixt $65.5bn and $67bn. The higher extremity of this scope falls abbreviated of the mean expert estimation of $67.6bn, arsenic per LSEG data.

As has been the lawsuit for caller years, crab blockbuster Keytruda (pembrolizumab) was the top-performing cause successful the large pharma company’s portfolio. The immunotherapy reached $31.7bn successful planetary sales, driving overmuch of the company’s higher-than-expected 2025 performance, particularly its beardown Q4. Keytruda is 1 of MSD’s products facing nonaccomplishment of exclusivity aboriginal this decade, portion benignant 2 diabetes drugs Januvia (sitagliptin) and neuromuscular blockage Bridion (sugammadex) suffer patent extortion successful 2026.

Eyes person truthful been firmly connected the company’s pipeline and M&A enactment successful hunt of gross replacement.

Reacting to the results, Citi analysts wrote: “We enactment 2026 guidance came successful beneath expectations arsenic capitalist involvement remains connected the anticipated Keytruda nonaccomplishment of exclusivity and the strategy to offset the interaction with caller launches and pipeline catalysts.”

MSD conducted 2 ample deals successful 2025 arsenic it seeks to replenish its portfolio. This included a $10bn buyout of Verona Pharma and a $9.2bn acquisition of antiviral developer Cidara Therapeutics successful August and November past year, respectively. In January 2026, determination were suggestions that MSD was looking to bargain Revolution Medicines for up to $32bn, though talks reportedly ended aft terms disagreements.

Speaking connected an net call, CEO Rob Davis said: “Our content successful our quality to person sustainable maturation erstwhile we get past the nonaccomplishment of exclusivity is arsenic precocious arsenic it's ever been. We person early-stage pipeline assets that we volition beryllium speechmaking retired successful the adjacent 2 years. Plus, we’ve conducted further concern development.”

Keytruda’s beardown show was joined by MSD’s caller cause Winrevair, which is utilized to dainty pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The injection recorded $467m successful income for Q4, up 133% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth earlier. While it was precocious approved successful 2024, Winrevair is touted arsenic a large maturation operator for the institution arsenic it transitions reliance distant from Keytruda.