MOS Trades at 14x Earnings While Its Brazil Business Just Grew EBITDA 190% In Q3 2025

1 week ago 6

David Beren

Tue, March 24, 2026 astatine 9:23 AM CDT 4 min read

Mosaic (MOS) posted a $519.5M Q4 nett nonaccomplishment owed to surging sulfur costs and a $189M impairment charge, but full-year 2025 nett income of $540.7M shows underlying strength; the institution trades astatine 14x net versus the chemicals manufacture mean of 26x. Nutrien (NTR) trades astatine 16x with $35B marketplace headdress and much diversified fertilizer exposure, portion CF Industries (CF) gained 65% year-to-date from its home earthy state vantage insulating it from sulfur inflation.
Hormuz Strait disruption threatens astir 1/3 of planetary fertilizer accumulation and logistics, creating proviso tightness successful phosphates that positions Mosaic to payment arsenic Chinese exports autumn 1.5M+ tonnes into 2026, though sulfur headwinds of astir $250M to Q1 2026 EBITDA and Brazil recognition constraints contiguous near-term execution risks.
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Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) is trading adjacent its 52-week debased aft shares fell astir 14% implicit the past week and astir 13% implicit the past month. The catalyst was a Q4 2025 nett nonaccomplishment of $519.5 million, driven by surging sulfur costs and a $189 cardinal impairment charge. Yet full-year 2025 nett income came successful astatine $540.7 million, a fig that tells a precise antithetic communicative than the header quarter.

It won't travel arsenic overmuch of a astonishment to larn that Reddit has taken notice. A azygous thread connected r/wallstreetbets is driving each of Mosaic's existent societal sentiment, with a bullish people of 72 retired of 100 crossed 4 consecutive measurement periods implicit the past 30 hours.

An infographic titled 'MOSAIC (MOS): THE FERTILIZER SLEEPER TRADE?' details concern highlights, societal sentiment, and driving factors. Section 1, 'THE INVESTMENT: Mosaic (MOS)', lists assemblage arsenic Fertilizer & Agriculture, Market Cap ~$7.6 Billion, banal adjacent 52-week low, and down ~18% implicit past period (as of Mar 23, 2026). Section 2, 'SOCIAL SENTIMENT SCORE', shows a gauge with '72 BULLISH' and an upward arrow, citing Reddit (r/wallstreetbets) arsenic the root implicit 4 periods successful the past 30 hours. Section 3, 'WHAT IS DRIVING THAT SCORE TODAY', lists factors including Geopolitical 'Sleeper Trade' Thesis, Hormuz Strait Disruption Concerns, Threat to ~1/3 Global Fertilizer Supply, Potential Benefit to Mosaic's Brazil Pivot, and Tightening Phosphate Market Supply. The infographic uses a acheronian bluish and achromatic colour strategy with greenish accents.

This infographic details Mosaic (MOS) arsenic a imaginable "sleeper trade" concern with a bullish societal sentiment people of 72, driven by geopolitical concerns and marketplace proviso factors arsenic of March 23, 2026.

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The ascendant thread, posted by u/Cueg, frames Mosaic arsenic a geopolitical sleeper trade. The station argues that lipid gets the headlines, but fertilizer is the second-order play: "a monolithic chunk (1/3) of planetary fertilizer accumulation and logistics runs done that region, straight oregon indirectly... fertilizer feels similar it lags, past moves harder erstwhile shortages really amusement up."

If Hormuz stays disrupted, fertilizer mightiness beryllium the sleeper trade
by u/Cueg successful wallstreetbets

The station has accumulated 1,198 upvotes and 473 comments arsenic of aboriginal Tuesday, up from 728 upvotes and 401 comments astatine highest engagement Monday evening. Activity scores held dependable alternatively than spiked, suggesting genuine concern discussion. The bullish lawsuit rests connected 3 structural arguments:

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