Morgan Stanley resets SanDisk stock forecast ahead of earnings

SanDisk has been 1 of the astir bonzer banal stories of 2026. Up astir 295% twelvemonth to date, the representation spot institution has ridden a NAND pricing supercycle into territory that would person seemed intolerable a twelvemonth ago.

Now Morgan Stanley has reset its forecast connected SanDisk successful a mode that says the steadfast believes the communicative has further to run, adjacent from here. The caller terms people is not a humble nudge. It is simply a statement.

Morgan Stanley raises SanDisk terms target

Analyst Joseph Moore raised his terms people connected SanDisk to $1,100 from $690 connected April 27, maintaining an overweight rating. SanDisk was trading astatine $989.90 astatine the April 24 close, making the caller people an 11% premium to the caller marketplace price.

Moore's valuation uses 23x through-cycle net per share, which helium raised to $48 from $30 arsenic his guardant estimates moved dramatically higher.

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With SanDisk's 2027 EPS present modeled astatine $149.68, Moore said helium is "comfortable moving the through-cycle net up to $48."

The revision to estimates is conscionable arsenic striking. Morgan Stanley present models SanDisk earning $127.92 per stock successful calendar 2026. That is 65% supra Wall Street statement of $77.55. For 2027, Morgan Stanley's $149.68 estimation sits 42% supra the Street's $105.03.

NAND pricing is the motor down SanDisk's bull case

The halfway thesis for SanDisk's bull lawsuit is NAND pricing momentum. Third-party forecasts task wide NAND mean selling prices to emergence astir 90% successful Q1 2026 and 70-75% successful Q2 2026. SanDisk is showing comparative outperformance successful lawsuit SSDs versus peers, Moore noted.

That surge is being driven by a structural mismatch betwixt AI-related request and constrained supply. Hyperscalers are pulling tremendous volumes of NAND flash into endeavor SSDs for training, inference, and vector storage. Industry analysts task 2026 NAND spot request maturation of 20-22% against spot proviso maturation of conscionable 15-17%, according to 24/7 Wall St. The shortage is widening, adjacent arsenic superior spending picks up.

Moore captured the cardinal question investors look directly. "NAND near-term spot is discounted," helium wrote. "The statement astatine this constituent is durability, and we expect pricing to stay beardown arsenic agelong arsenic we stay astatine maximum AI investment." New capableness is not expected online until aft 2027, which keeps proviso elasticity constricted successful the adjacent term, according to TradingKey.

SanDisk's caller results acceptable a precise precocious bar

The Morgan Stanley people rise comes up of SanDisk's fiscal Q3 2026 net connected April 30. SanDisk's fiscal Q2 results were exceptional. The institution reported non-GAAP EPS of $6.20, good supra the $3.54 consensus. Revenue of $3.03 cardinal topped the $2.67 cardinal Wall Street estimate, according to SanDisk's Q2 property release.