More than 90% of Iranian missiles intercepted, but a dangerous imbalance is emerging

EXCLUSIVE: As U.S., Israeli and allied forces proceed to intercept the immense bulk of Iranian missiles and drones, a caller study and adept investigation uncover a increasing interest down the header success: the outgo and sustainability of the defence itself.

More than 90% of Iranian projectiles person been intercepted during the war, according to a study obtained by Fox News Digital from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), acknowledgment to a layered determination aerial defence strategy built during years of coordination.

But beneath that occurrence lies a widening imbalance that could signifier the adjacent signifier of the conflict.

The study highlights a captious trend: Iran’s slightest costly weapons are proving the astir disruptive and are draining costly U.S. and Israeli interceptors.

IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

U.S. Central Command released footage showing strikes connected Iranian mobile rocket launchers. (@CENTCOM via X)

The existent aerial defence architecture, integrating U.S., Israeli and Arab systems, has proven highly effectual astatine stopping incoming threats. Early informing systems, shared radar sum and pre-positioned assets person allowed aggregate countries to enactment unneurotic to decision Iranian missiles and drones.

During a property briefing connected Wednesday, property caput Karoline Leavitt said, "More than 9,000 force targets person been struck to day … Iran's ballistic rocket attacks and drone attacks are down by astir 90%," she said, adding that U.S. forces person besides destroyed much than 140 Iranian naval vessels, including astir 50 excavation layers.

A surge of U.S. assets earlier the war, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), batteries, Patriot systems, 2 bearer onslaught groups and astir 200 combatant aircraft, helped sorb Iran’s opening salvos and support precocious interception rates, according to JINSA's report.

But Ari Cicurel, subordinate manager of overseas argumentation astatine JINSA and writer of the report, said focusing lone connected interception percentages misses the bigger picture.

"Overall precocious rocket and drone interception rates person been important but lone archer portion of the story," Cicurel told Fox News Digital. "Iran came into this warfare with a deliberate program to dismantle the architecture that makes those intercepts possible. It has struck vigor infrastructure to upset markets and utilized clump munitions to execute higher deed rates."

IRAN’S DRONE SWARMS CHALLENGE US AIR DEFENSES AS TROOPS IN MIDDLE EAST FACE RISING THREATS

Israel's aerial defence targets Iranian missiles successful the entity of Tel Aviv successful Israel,  on June 16, 2025. (MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Danny Citrinowicz, a Middle East and nationalist information adept astatine Institute for National Security Studies and a nonresident chap astatine the Atlantic Council, said that imbalance is astatine the bosom of the problem. 

"There needs to beryllium a alteration successful the equation," helium told Fox News Digital. "The Iranians are launching drones that outgo astir $30,000, and we are utilizing missiles that outgo millions of dollars to intercept them. That spread is simply a precise problematic one."

He added that the aforesaid dynamic applies to ballistic missiles.

"Building a rocket successful Iran whitethorn outgo a fewer 100 1000 dollars, portion the interceptor costs millions, particularly erstwhile we speech astir systems similar Arrow," helium said. "It’s easier and quicker to nutrient missiles than it is to physique interceptors. That’s not a secret."

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile strategy intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, arsenic seen from the metropolis of Ashkelon, Israel, Oct. 9, 2023.  (Amir Cohen/Reuters)

This outgo imbalance is feeding into a broader concern: interceptor depletion.

The JINSA study warns that stockpiles crossed the portion are already nether strain. Some Gulf states person utilized a important information of their interceptor inventories, with estimates suggesting Bahrain whitethorn person expended up to 87% of its Patriot missiles, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait person utilized astir 75% and Qatar has utilized astir 40%. 

Israel is besides facing mounting pressure. While officials person not publically confirmed stockpile levels, the study notes signs of rationing, including decisions not to intercept definite cluster-munition threats successful bid to conserve much precocious interceptors.

PENTAGON ESTIMATES IRAN WAR COST $11.3B IN THE FIRST SIX DAYS IN CLOSED-DOOR CONGRESSIONAL HEARING: REPORT

The remains of a Russian-made, Iran-designed Shahed-136 drone, known successful Russia arsenic a Geran-2, are displayed with different recovered drones, glide bombs, missiles and rockets successful Kharkiv connected July 30, 2025. (Scott Peterson/Getty Images)

Citrinowicz said that dynamics go much acute the longer the warfare continues.

"We are present respective weeks into the war, and adjacent if the salvos are limited, the contented of interceptors becomes much important implicit time," helium said.

Iran has adapted its tactics accordingly, shifting from ample barrages to smaller, much predominant attacks designed to support changeless unit portion gradually draining antiaircraft resources.

These persistent salvos, adjacent if constricted successful size, unit defenders to stay connected precocious alert and proceed expending interceptors, accelerating the depletion of already finite stockpiles.

The study underscores that drones airs a unsocial situation compared to ballistic missiles.

Unlike missiles, which trust connected ample launchers and permission detectable signatures, drones tin beryllium launched from mobile platforms and tin alert astatine debased altitudes that marque them harder for radar systems to detect.

For example, A Shahed-136 weighs astir 200 kilograms and launches from an angled obstruction mounted connected a pickup truck, aft which the unit tin rapidly relocate. That simpler motorboat illustration makes it easier for Iran to disperse, conceal and occurrence nether pressure, the study stated.

Iran besides has incorporated lessons from the warfare successful Ukraine, deploying much precocious drones, including those guided by fiber-optic cables that are immune to physics jamming, and faster variants powered by pitchy engines.

These innovations complicate interception timelines and summation the likelihood of palmy strikes, adjacent against different effectual defence systems.

INSIDE THE ISRAELI DRONE UNIT TAKING ON IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH

Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted arsenic seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 15, 2025. (REUTERS/Tomer Neuberg)

Despite these challenges, the study emphasizes that the antiaircraft architecture has not failed.

"The architecture has held, but the trajectory is moving successful the incorrect direction," Cicurel said. "Reversing it requires moving assets to wherever the unit is greatest, hunting Iranian launchers and drones much aggressively, and convoying ships done the Gulf."

Even with precocious interception rates, the broader interaction of the attacks is being felt.

Iranian strikes connected vigor infrastructure and shipping person driven lipid prices higher and disrupted postulation done the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating that aerial defence unsocial cannot forestall economical and strategical consequences.

The emerging representation is not 1 of failing defenses, but of a strategy nether increasing strain.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

An detonation is reported adjacent the U.S. Consulate and the Erbil International Airport area, wherever a U.S. subject basal is besides located, successful Erbil, Iraq, with occurrence breaking retired and heavy fume rising pursuing the blast, connected march 12, 2026.  (Ahsan Mohammed Ahmed Ahmed/Anadolu via Getty Images)

As agelong arsenic Iran tin nutrient inexpensive drones and missiles faster than the U.S., Israel and their partners tin nutrient interceptors, the equilibrium whitethorn gradually shift.

"As agelong arsenic the warfare continues," Citrinowicz said, "the cardinal question volition beryllium whether Iran tin nutrient missiles faster than we tin nutrient interceptors."