Molson Coors Could Drop Another 3% as Barclays Slashes Target to $40 With Underweight Rating

1 week ago 6

Joel South

Wed, March 25, 2026 astatine 9:22 AM CDT 3 min read

Molson Coors (TAP) guided for underlying EPS to diminution 11% to 15% successful 2026 versus 2025, driven by Americas measurement declines of 8.5% successful Q4 and $35 cardinal successful unfavorable Midwest Premium aluminum surcharges successful Q4 alone, portion the institution launched a three-year outgo savings programme targeting up to $450 million.
Barclays chopped its terms people connected Molson Coors to $40 from $47 citing sustained outgo headwinds and measurement erosion that volition compress multiples arsenic the brewer’s net diminution passim 2026.
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Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) has been nether sustained unit heading into 2026. Shares are down astir 2.00%% implicit the past week, and much than 13% twelvemonth to date. Over the past year, TAP has fallen 30.05%, good disconnected its 52-week precocious of $63.50. The banal closed astir precocious astatine $41.16.

While the Street's statement people sits astatine $47.67, Barclays is taking a decidedly much cautious stance. The steadfast chopped its terms people connected Molson Coors to $40 from $47, maintaining an Underweight rating. At existent levels, that people implies astir 3% further downside from wherever shares commercialized today. But tin TAP realistically scope $40 by the extremity of 2026?

Barclays' bearish telephone is grounded successful Molson Coors' ain guardant guidance. Management projected underlying EPS to diminution 11% to 15% successful 2026 versus 2025, with underlying income earlier income taxes expected to autumn 15% to 18%. Compounding that, astir $35 cardinal successful unfavorable Midwest Premium aluminum surcharges deed Q4 alone, and elevated aluminum costs are expected to stay a meaningful headwind passim 2026.

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Volume Deterioration successful the Americas: Americas fiscal volumes fell 8.5% successful Q4 and U.S. marque volumes declined 5.1%, driven by manufacture softness and stock losses successful premium segments. Sustained measurement erosion successful the halfway concern limits net betterment potential.
Cost Savings Program arsenic an Offset: Management launched a three-year outgo savings programme targeting up to $450 million, with savings opening successful 2026. This initiative, alongside a $4 cardinal stock repurchase authorization done December 31, 2031, provides a level for semipermanent superior return.
Dividend Stability Amid Earnings Pressure: Molson Coors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, supported by full-year escaped currency travel of $1.14 billion. The 4.48% dividend output provides income portion investors hold for operational stabilization.