MercadoLibre’s $2,100 Price Target: Can MELI Recover From Its 17% Monthly Slide?

1 day ago 4

Joel South

Thu, March 12, 2026 astatine 10:09 AM CDT 4 min read

MercadoLibre (MELI) saw its recognition portfolio turn 90% year-over-year to $12.5B portion Mercado Pago reached 78 cardinal monthly progressive users, positioning the fintech concern arsenic a multi-decade maturation operator successful a portion wherever little than 20% of Mexicans clasp recognition cards. Advertising gross surged 67% connected an FX-neutral ground and cross-border GMV jumped 74% FX-neutral successful Q4, representing early-stage gross streams with important semipermanent upside.
JPMorgan downgraded MercadoLibre to Neutral and chopped its terms people to $2,100 from $2,650 owed to intensifying contention from Shopee successful Brazil and borderline compression that absorption shows nary signs of reversing contempt 28 consecutive quarters of commerce gross maturation supra 30%.
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MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) has had a unsmooth stretch. Shares are down 17% year-to-date, trading astatine $1,665, with a statement terms people of $2,683.92 and 25 bargain oregon strong-buy ratings versus conscionable 1 hold. But JPMorgan conscionable drew a overmuch much cautious enactment successful the sand.

JPMorgan downgraded MELI to Neutral from Overweight and lowered its terms people to $2,100 from $2,650, with a people of $2,100. That stands good beneath the Street consensus, framing $2,100 arsenic a realistic near-term ceiling alternatively than a launchpad. But tin MELI realistically scope $2,100 by the extremity of 2026?

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The downgrade is rooted successful competitory unit that shows nary motion of easing. Shopee has reiterated its willingness to proceed sacrificing margins successful Brazil, and JPMorgan nary longer sees statement estimates stabilizing fixed that absorption has openly embraced a higher level of concern spending. The steadfast sees 15% downside to statement 2026 EBIT estimates and has revised its profitability expectations lower. With operating borderline already down 450 ground points year-over-year successful Q4, the net mathematics is hard to ignore.

Fintech expansion: The recognition portfolio grew 90% year-over-year to $12.5 billion, portion Mercado Pago reached 78 cardinal monthly progressive users. With little than 20% of Mexicans holding recognition cards, fiscal inclusion is simply a multi-decade compounding communicative for diligent status investors.
E-commerce underpenetration: Latin American e-commerce penetration remains astir fractional the level of the US, UK, and China. Revenue grew 44.6% year-over-year to $8.76 cardinal successful Q4, marking 28 consecutive quarters of maturation supra 30%.
Advertising and cross-border trade: Advertising gross grew 67% connected an FX-neutral basis, and the China-to-LatAm corridor is scaling rapidly, with cross-border GMV up 74% FX-neutral successful Q4. These are early-stage gross streams with important semipermanent upside.