Market Digest: ORCL, RL, ELV

Argus

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Mar 17, 2025

Summary

The Fed weighs-in this week, with a bonus this clip astir by mode of the alleged 'dot plot.' The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 person each crossed into antagonistic territory for the year. Last week, the Dow mislaid 3.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.4%. Year to date, the Dow has declined 2%, the S&P 500 is down 4%, and the Nasdaq has mislaid 8%. On the economical calendar, the large time is Wednesday, with a Federal Reserve determination connected involvement rates and added penetration from the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (the dot plot). This data, combined with commentary from Fed Chairman Powell aft the complaint decision, volition seizure aggravated interest. No alteration is rates is expected. Turning to different data, Retail Sales commencement the week and volition connection penetration into the resilience of consumers successful the look of persistent inflation. Argus forecasts header Retail Sales volition beryllium up 4% for February connected a year-over-year basis, versus 4.0% past month. For Retail Sales ex-Autos, we spot a slowdown to 3.3% compared to the anterior 3.7%. This study volition assistance traders gauge if January's income were brushed due to the fact that of weather, seasonal adjustments, and a vacation spending hangover -- oregon if January marked the commencement of a worrisome slowdown. Other notable information retired this week includes the merchandise of the Financial Stress Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (on Thursday). That is the Economic Call of the Week from Argus' Chief Economist Chris Graja. Chris sees this indicator rising somewhat for the week ended March 14, but remaining beneath zero and signaling a continuation of below-average accent successful the fiscal markets. If the scale was to leap supra 1, that mightiness beryllium a motion that existent stock-market volatility has broader consequences. The scale is constructed from 18 play information series. It has go little antagonistic since mid-February. The past clip it roseate supra 1 was for a azygous week 2 years ago, coinciding with the nonaccomplishment of Silicon Valley Bank. The implicit numbers substance most. Earnings play is over. The stragglers' database includes General Mills and Five Below connected Wednesday; and Nike, FedEx, Micron Technology, Accenture, and Darden Restaurants connected Thursday. Last week, ostentation information moved lower. The header CPI people was 2.8% connected an yearly ground for February versus 3.0% for January. Core CPI