Market Digest: ETR, HAS, MS, ULTA

2 months ago 25

Argus

•

Apr 14, 2025

Market Digest: ETR, HAS, MS, ULTA

Sector(s)

Utilities, Financial Services, Consumer Cyclical

Summary

CEOs connected Tariffs Over the weekend, President Trump revised his tariff program for electronics. The marketplace volition beryllium connected borderline again this week, waiting for immoderate much tariff surprises and pondering the announcements already made. Meanwhile, this is the archetypal afloat week of net and Wall Street volition perceive from CEOs astir however tariffs whitethorn interaction their idiosyncratic businesses. It besides is simply a abbreviated trading week, with markets closed for Good Friday. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 some gained 5% and the Nasdaq roseate 3%. However, each 3 indices are inactive antagonistic for the year, arsenic the DJIA has declined 5%, the S&P 500 is down 9%, and the Nasdaq has mislaid 13%. The net calendar kicks into precocious cogwheel this week. Some companies that already reported held backmost their guidance for 2025 due to the fact that of tariff uncertainty. Goldman Sachs reports connected Monday; Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines connected Tuesday; Abbott Labs connected Wednesday; and Taiwan Semiconductor and UnitedHealth Group connected Thursday. Consensus estimates for 1Q25 EPS maturation scope from astir 3%-8%. This follows 17% maturation successful 4Q24 EPS and 9% maturation successful 3Q24, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Leading sectors for 1Q25 are expected to beryllium Healthcare and Information Technology. Growth from the Mag 7, astatine astir 18% collectively, is expected to outpace wide growth. On the downside, net from the Energy assemblage are expected to diminution 15%. For 2025, our full-year net estimation is $276, implying low-double-digit maturation from 2024 levels. On the economical calendar, Retail Sales for March are owed retired connected Wednesday. This elaborate study volition amusement user priorities for spending and volition beryllium parsed cautiously pursuing user sentiment information past Friday that showed an erosion successful user confidence. Retail Sales is Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja's Economic Call of the Week. Chris expects Retail Sales to emergence much than 3% connected a year-over-year basis. Chris offered the following. 'We expect to spot that income got a turbo-charged boost due to the fact that car buyers made purchases successful beforehand of tariff implementation. Light conveyance sales, which were reported astatine the opening of the month, jumped to an yearly gait of 17.77 cardinal units from 16.01 cardinal successful February, a weather-depressed 15.49 cardinal complaint successful January, and a robust 16.87 cardinal successful December (which was astir apt helped by tariff expectations and year-end deals to wide inventories). We anticipation that 16 cardinal vehicles doesn't beryllium to beryllium a ceiling alternatively than a level successful coming months. We volition besides ticker for slowing successful the non-store retail category, which is dominated by e-commerce. Growth has averaged 7.1% implicit the past 12 months, but has declined to 5.5% implicit the past 3 months. Food services and drinking places volition besides beryllium important successful the information mix. They are classified successful the GDP study arsenic a portion of the large and precise important services category. Growth astatine restaurants has been slowing. The six-month mean is 3.2%. A people beneath the three-month mean of 2.68% mightiness beryllium motion that consumers are pulling back. 'We volition support watching the St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index (FSI). Last Thursday's release, covering the week which ended connected April 4, showed that the FSI ticked supra zero (0.0944) for the archetypal clip successful much than a year. The affirmative speechmaking signaled above-average fiscal accent aft President Trump made his blockbuster tariff announcement connected April 2. We attraction astir indicators similar this 1 (which is based connected 18 play information series) and the OFR Financial Stress Index from the U.S. Treasury Department (based connected 33 variables) due to the fact that free-flowing fiscal markets are truthful important to the economy. The caller scale level is inactive beneath different 'stressful' events. For comparison, the scale moved supra 1 for a azygous week coinciding with the nonaccomplishment of Silicon Valley slope successful 2023. It moved supra 2.0, peaking supra 9 during the Lehman Brothers situation successful 2008. The scale besides roseate supra 2 and peaked supra 5 astatine the onset of COVID-19 successful March 2020.' Last week featured bully quality connected inflation. CPI slowed to 2.4% successful March, down from 2.8% successful February. Core CPI decelerated to 2.8% versus 3.1%. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measurement forecasts a diminution of 2.4% for 1Q, signaling contraction. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.4% complaint for CPI for April, in-line with the March rate. Mortgage Rates edged down 2 ground points, with the mean 30-year fixed-rate owe present astatine 6.62%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices roseate six cents