MARK HALPERIN: Is Democrat James Talarico the real deal — or Beto 2.0 headed for a Texas flop?

Hope tin so beryllium a unsafe thing.

State Rep. James Talarico said conscionable that connected Tuesday nighttime — "A small spot of anticipation is simply a unsafe thing" — and helium meant it arsenic a telephone to action, a summons to the faithful. But the enactment lingers successful the Texas aerial for a antithetic reason. Democrats are astir to put a large woody of time, wealth and, yes, anticipation successful the conception that a young authorities legislator from Round Rock is the antheral who volition interruption a astir four-decade winless drought for his enactment successful the Lone Star State.

Hope tin animate. It tin besides delude.

For Democrats, the drought is real. No Democrat has won a statewide contention successful Texas since 1994. Ann Richards is simply a memory. The Bush epoch came and went. The Tea Party rose. Donald Trump remade the GOP. Beto O’Rourke flashed and faded. And inactive the reddish partition has held, impregnable.

Now comes Talarico — youthful, fluent, speedy connected his feet, comfy quoting Scripture and cablegram quality soundbites successful the aforesaid breath. The media emotion him. He wowed Joe Rogan successful a long-form podcast quality that had Democrats texting 1 different links with exclamation points. He has raised superior money. He has shown a knack for turning contention into currency, deftly parlaying a late-night fracas involving Stephen Colbert into fundraising substance and escaped exposure.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Democrat from Texas and U.S. Senate candidate, during a statement astatine the 2026 Texas AFL-CIO COPE Convention successful Georgetown, Texas connected Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. (Bob Daemmrich/The Texas Tribune/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

His superior triumph implicit Rep. Jasmine Crockett stunned immoderate Democratic insiders. Crockett had higher nationalist sanction recognition, a beardown basal successful Dallas and an endorsement from Vice President Kamala Harris that galore assumed would beryllium decisive. It did not. The Harris imprimatur did not propel Crockett implicit the top. Talarico won — not narrowly, not ambiguously, but convincingly capable to awesome that thing existent is happening wrong his party.

And yet.

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Meanwhile, connected the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn finished conscionable up of Attorney General Ken Paxton successful their primary, forcing a runoff that volition specify the contention arsenic overmuch arsenic thing Democrats do. Most seasoned Texas governmental handicappers successful some parties judge Cornyn would bushed Talarico successful November. Cornyn is known, funded, battle-tested and susceptible of moving a disciplined run with nationalist help. The Senate Republican apparatus would enactment up down him successful an instant.

Texas authorities Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a Democratic campaigner for the U.S. Senate, speaks astatine a superior predetermination ticker enactment Tuesday, March 3, 2026, successful Austin, Texas. (Eric Gay/AP Photo)

Views are much mixed astir what would hap if Paxton were the nominee. Paxton carries baggage — ineligible troubles, morals questions and a agelong way of ungraded headlines. Democrats salivate astatine the prospect. They spot a path: suburban Republicans uneasy with Paxton, independents turned disconnected by drama, Hispanic and Black voters, and a well-spoken Democrat talking astir religion and fairness.

But adjacent here, anticipation whitethorn beryllium doing much enactment than math.

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Because Democrats intoxicated by Talarico’s emergence are overlooking an inconvenient truth: He is simply a liberal. Not a mean successful centrist clothing. Not a triangulator. On contented aft contented — abortion, weapon control, the border, climate, LGBTQ rights, taxes — helium sits comfortably connected the near flank of his party. In immoderate respects, helium appears to beryllium much wide than Crockett, whose sharper rhetorical benignant sometimes obscured a much accepted argumentation profile.

Hope, untethered from past and arithmetic, tin go its ain benignant of mirage. Democrats erstwhile believed Beto O’Rourke would bash it. Before that, it was Wendy Davis. Each time, the wealth poured in, the nationalist media swooned and Texas Republicans softly counted votes.

Talarico’s slick media performances and professions of religion — helium is unfastened astir his Christianity and speaks often astir motivation intent — person created an representation of a post-partisan span figure. But absorption probe is coming. It ever does. Republicans are already compiling footage, level speeches and votes. They are digging into his contented positions and his idiosyncratic life. December’s communicative detailing his societal media interactions with OnlyFans models and prostitutes volition surely not beryllium the past unflattering header resurrected successful a wide election.

Texas State Rep. James Talarico, D-Travis, and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, shingle hands. (Bob Daemmrich/Getty Images)

Texas is not Manhattan oregon Malibu. It is Houston’s vigor corridors, the Rio Grande Valley’s shifting politics, the fast-growing suburbs of Dallas and Fort Worth and the tiny towns wherever taste conservatism inactive hums beneath the surface. Democrats person made gains successful the suburbs, yes, and Tuesday’s results suggest a instrumentality of the Hispanic ballot toward Democrats. But statewide triumph requires threading a precise constrictive needle — expanding the municipality base, holding suburban converts, winning Hispanics decisively and cutting into agrarian Republican margins without frightening culturally mean voters.

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That is simply a high-wire enactment for immoderate Democrat. It is particularly truthful for 1 with a reliably wide grounds and a idiosyncratic blank slate astir to beryllium filled successful by ace PAC ads.

On the Republican side, the calculation is acold and clear. The astute wealth says Donald Trump volition flooded his relationship with Paxton and yet broadside with Cornyn, heeding the proposal and pleading of apical governmental aides aligned with the incumbent, arsenic good arsenic Senate Republican allies similar Majority Leader John Thune. The reasoning is simple: Endorse Cornyn, apt prevention the spot and debar spending tens of millions of dollars successful a brutal runoff and past successful a divisive wide predetermination astatine a clip erstwhile each spot — and each dollar — counts.

Trump understands power. So bash Senate Republicans. A mislaid Texas spot would not conscionable beryllium a headline; it would beryllium a assemblage blow.

Which brings america backmost to hope.

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Talarico’s emergence is real. His endowment is undeniable. He has fixed Texas Democrats thing they person not had successful a agelong time: a campaigner who feels caller alternatively than recycled, fluent alternatively than flustered, devout without being dour. In a authorities that often seems exhausted, helium looks energized.

But hope, untethered from past and arithmetic, tin go its ain benignant of mirage. Democrats erstwhile believed O’Rourke would bash it. Before that, it was Wendy Davis. Each time, the wealth poured in, the nationalist media swooned and Texas Republicans softly counted votes.

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"A small spot of anticipation is simply a unsafe thing," Talarico said.

He meant it arsenic inspiration. In Texas politics, it whitethorn beryllium prophetic.

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