Major US port faces big slowdown: What it means for the economy

00:00 Speaker A

Well signs of an economical slowdown are materializing astatine U.S. ports. Yahoo! Finance Markets newsman Josh Shafer joining america present with a person look astatine the numbers connected the postulation and what we're seeing truthful far.

00:09 Josh Shafer

Yeah, truthful this has been an absorbing one, Julie, due to the fact that you benignant of person these moments successful the economical communicative wherever the information isn't needfully telling the communicative that radical consciousness similar is retired determination successful presumption of close present we consciousness similar there's possibly an economical slowdown possibly already happening oregon coming, but erstwhile you look a batch of the different precocious frequence data, you're not truly seeing that, right? And truthful 1 happening economists person been highlighting implicit the past week is information from the larboard of Los Angeles. So what we're seeing from information from the larboard of Los Angeles arsenic acold arsenic play scheduled, uh, containers coming into that port, what you're looking astatine present is twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth growth. So you tin spot a large spike for that week that included April 20. Then you're seeing a ample determination down. So this is what a batch of economists person been talking about. They deliberation we're going to spot erstwhile we get much April data, which is possibly you had a batch of spending successful March, past it benignant of falls disconnected a cliff to immoderate extent, right? Because you had a batch of radical fundamentally ordering earlier the tariffs travel in. Now the question is of people what does that mean for the wide system erstwhile you commencement to spot this slowing down? And you really precocious spoke to Ryan Peterson from Flexport. He's the Flexport laminitis and CEO, and I thought helium explained this alternatively well. So I privation to instrumentality a perceive what helium had to say.

01:51 Ryan Peterson

If it comes mode backmost down then, you know, it'll beryllium okay. The companies volition rebook those containers and commencement moving the goods again. If it lasts in, you know, a fewer much weeks, surely a fewer much months, you're going to commencement to spot shortages. You're going to commencement to spot bankruptcies, unemployment, uh, and truly conscionable a ample standard recession similar we haven't seen successful many, galore years.

02:22 Josh Shafer

So the it determination that Ryan's referring to is tariffs, right? And he's saying, he's saying if tariff rates don't travel down soon, you're going to proceed to person this issue, and past benignant of the economical mode that this contented spins out, right? Guys, is if little things are coming into the US past things that are present are apt get much expensive. If things that are present are apt get much expensive, past my wealth doesn't spell arsenic far, right? So I astir apt bargain less. Well, if I bargain less, past possibly astatine immoderate constituent the companies that are selling maine worldly accidental I request little employees. And past you get your unemployment emergence and that's benignant of however the rhythm works. So close present it's conscionable a fewer weeks. We're conscionable looking astatine shipment data, but it's 1 existent motion of literal economical enactment that is slowing that I deliberation we're going to beryllium progressively talking astir successful the weeks coming.

03:30 Speaker A

That's 1 truthful that's 1 indicator, Josh, but what there's different cardinal indicators folks look astatine and you constitute astir this similar you speech astir play filings for unemployment benefits. I mean, what what are what are those saying?

03:57 Josh Shafer

Yeah, truthful the play filings for unemployment, Josh, close present are truly not telling you much, right? You've been sitting astatine astir 220,000 for feels similar a small spot implicit a period now. But what I deliberation is absorbing is conscionable again to deliberation astir benignant of however this works. It's astir apt going to instrumentality respective months for those to commencement picking up, right? In presumption of existent layoffs, you would request to spot your concern really slow. And close now, adjacent erstwhile you deliberation astir firm net calls and what we're proceeding from companies, it's not that their concern has already slowed, they're disquieted astir it slowing successful a mates months, right? So is the layoff rhythm a precocious summertime layoff cycle, right? And that's benignant of the cooldown play that you see, due to the fact that again, you request to person a crushed to laic radical off, right? People don't conscionable privation to get escaped of workers to get escaped of them. You request to person immoderate pressures that really commencement to materialize. So it seems similar that portion of the communicative mightiness really beryllium a small spot later, for instance, the jobs study this Friday isn't needfully expected to beryllium that bad.

05:04 Speaker A

I deliberation tiny businesses possibly volition consciousness this archetypal due to the fact that they person little cushion. And we besides could beryllium successful the absorbing concern wherever adjacent if accidental a period from present a commercialized woody is announced, it doesn't mean the tariffs volition travel down immediately, oregon adjacent if they do, it takes a portion to benignant of provender done the system. So you could beryllium successful a concern wherever you get economical information that is deteriorating, but the markets going up due to the fact that it's seeing those commercialized deals possibly coming through.

05:56 Josh Shafer

Right.

05:57 Speaker A

I mean, not that that's unusual, right? The market.

06:01 Josh Shafer

The market's going to look forward.

06:02 Speaker A

But still, it'll consciousness a small discordant if that's however it plays out.

06:10 Josh Shafer

Yeah, definitely. And I deliberation to your point, erstwhile bash the existent rates travel down, right? I deliberation it's benignant of the looming question, not speech astir these speech astir deescalating, but erstwhile does the existent deescalation?

06:25 Speaker A

Exactly. Yeah.