Japan estimates feared megaquake could cause $1.8 trln in damage, kill 300,000 people

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's system could suffer arsenic overmuch arsenic $1.81 trillion successful the lawsuit of a long-anticipated megaquake disconnected its Pacific coast, which could trigger devastating tsunamis, the illness of hundreds of buildings and perchance sidesplitting astir 300,000 people, a authorities study said connected Monday.

The expected economical harm of 270.3 trillion yen, oregon astir fractional of the country's full gross home merchandise (GDP), was up sharply from the erstwhile estimation of 214.2 trillion yen arsenic the caller estimation accounted for inflationary pressures and updated terrain and crushed information which person expanded anticipated flood areas, the Cabinet Office study showed.

Japan is 1 of the world's astir earthquake-prone countries, and the authorities sees astir an 80% accidental of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake on a tremulous seabed portion known arsenic the Nankai Trough.

Under the worst-case scenario, based connected a imaginable magnitude 9 earthquake successful the area, Japan is apt to spot 1.23 cardinal evacuees oregon 1% of its full population. As galore arsenic 298,000 radical could dice from tsunamis and gathering collapses if the quake occurs precocious astatine nighttime successful winter, the study showed.

The trough is disconnected Japan's southwest Pacific seashore and runs for astir 900 km (600 miles), wherever the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting nether the Eurasian Plate. The accumulating tectonic strains could effect successful a megaquake astir erstwhile successful 100 to 150 years.

Last year, Japan issued its first-ever megaquake advisory that determination was a "relatively higher chance" of a quake arsenic almighty arsenic magnitude 9 successful the trough, aft a magnitude-7.1 quake occurred astatine the borderline of the trough.

A magnitude 9 quake successful 2011 that triggered a devastating tsunami and the triple reactor meltdowns astatine a atomic powerfulness works successful northeast Japan killed much than 15,000 people.

($1 = 149.0500 yen)

(This communicative has been corrected to alteration the percent fig to 1% from 10% successful paragraph 4)

(Reporting by Mariko Katsumura; Editing by Kim Coghill)